DEAL: "Luther's Christmas Tree" for $1

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This post has 54 Replies | 4 Followers

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JT (alabama24) | Forum Activity | Posted: Sun, Nov 22 2015 10:34 AM

There is already a thread about this resource, but I thought I would explain how community pricing works and see if we can get this resource down to $1 for everyone. 

From the Blurb: 

Martin Luther’s Christmas Tree:
Whether history or legend, the tale of Martin Luther’s Christmas Tree is a heart-warming story about how Luther used Christmas trees to illuminate the way Christ brought God’s light into the world.

This book is currently on community pricing, and bidding closes at 12:00pm (PST) on Friday, 11/27/2015. As of this writing, the book is going for $2. If you would like the book and don't mind spending $2, please bid so. If the book sounds appealing to you only at $1, then bid that. 

As a reminder, when bidding closes on Friday, EVERYONE will be able to purchase the book for the same price. Currently, the price is $2. If enough bidders come on board (with any bid), the price will move to $1 and everyone will get the book at that price. If you bid $1 and there aren't enough bidders, you will lose your opportunity to get the book for $2, but can purchase it later at the "pre pub" price. 

If you are interested in bidding, CLICK HERE. You will be taken to a product page for the book. Scroll down slightly and you will see a "place your bid" graph (shown below). Click on the graph at the price you would be willing to pay for the book. REMEMBER: everyone with a successful bid will get the book at the same price. A bid for $10 is also a bid for $2, which is where the book is currently priced. If you bid $10 and the book closes at $2, you get the book for $2 when it is produced. If you have questions, feel free to ask. Smile

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Bruce Dunning | Forum Activity | Replied: Sun, Nov 22 2015 1:18 PM

Great explanation of how Community Pricing works. It seems that many don't fully understand how it works so a reminder is appropriate.

Based on how quickly interest developed in this I totally think that $1 is achievable by Friday. This is the type of resource that people like and, at such a great price, it is a no-brainer. If you've never participated in Community Pricing this is the perfect opportunity.

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GaoLu | Forum Activity | Replied: Sun, Nov 22 2015 3:54 PM

Good Grief! Would ya just look at that!  Back when it started out at something like $14 I gave it a disgruntled sniff, drooled, looked for it elsewhere, thought about a PB, then bit my lip and bid anyway.  And now look at it! Yes!  

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JT (alabama24) | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 7:50 AM

It is up to about 70%. 

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Pete De Bonte | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 1:22 PM

From the previous thread:

Matthew Miller:
Community Pricing is driven by the number of bids.

How does the raw number of bids affect the price?  I've watched a video and read a couple articles, including "How Community Pricing Works" (which btw, has a broken link to "A Bidding Strategy for Community Pricing"), and one even says:

"The book will go into production whether one person bids $10,000 or whether 10,000 people bid $1. The math is the same."

But it doesn't say what that math is.  Maybe it doesn't matter to Logos, but wouldn't the "one person" example result in that "winner" paying 10K$ for the book (not really a "win")?  In Alabama24's example, above, if nobody bid $1, would the price ever possibly become $1?  Why wouldn't it take a bunch of people bidding $1 to lower the price below $2?

Could someone explain the math (beyond just giving several scenarios)? It would be even better if it was clearly explained outside the forums.

Thanks!

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NB.Mick | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 2:48 PM

Pete De Bonte:

"The book will go into production whether one person bids $10,000 or whether 10,000 people bid $1. The math is the same."

But it doesn't say what that math is. 

 

I think it does say. The math is: number of bids at a price point multiplied by that price is the revenue for Faithlife.

That revenue needs to cover (= be at least as high as) the cost to Faithlife. In the example, $10,000   

Pete De Bonte:

In Alabama24's example, above, if nobody bid $1, would the price ever possibly become $1?  Why wouldn't it take a bunch of people bidding $1 to lower the price below $2?

The point is that people bidding express the amount they are willing to pay at most - they are as well willing to pay less. Thus a bid for a certain price point is at the same time a bid for all lowert price points as well. Assume the "Luther's Christm,as Tree" resource was the one in the example and cost $10,000 to produce. If 5,000 people say, they pay $2, it will go into production. These same people would be happy to pay $1 instead of $2 - so at the price point $1, the demand curve would show 50% if no one bid $1.

Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

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Bruce Dunning | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 2:56 PM

Pete De Bonte:
Could someone explain the math (beyond just giving several scenarios)?

Faithlife doesn't give the specific math for a specific resource. They internally calculate what the costs would be to cover the expense of putting a resource into production. Based on that they determine what the bidding increments they will offer with the hope that people will place bids. And then they hope enough people will bid to cover the costs. This is a bit of a guessing game and there is a danger of bidding stalling out with insufficient bidders.

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Pete De Bonte | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 3:03 PM

NB.Mick:
Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs.  I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

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Erwin Stull, Sr. | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 3:20 PM

Since yesterday, the $1 bids have jumped from 60% to 80%. I think it has a good chance of being final at $1. 1, or even 2 dollars is not much. That probably can be found in pennies around the house somewhere. Smile

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JT (alabama24) | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 3:57 PM

Pete De Bonte:

NB.Mick:
Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs.  I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

I have no idea what you are asking. Again, a bid of $2 is ALSO a bid of $1. 

For $1 to be successful, then $2 has to be equal or greater than 200%. Using simple math: If the production cost is $100, you would need 50 people to bid $2 to be successful (50x$2=$100). 100% of $100 @ $2 bids = 50. Likewise, you would need 200% of the number of successful $2 bids to = $100 (100 is 200% of 50). 

If you are asking "what is the actual cost of production," you aren't likely to get an answer.

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Bruce Dunning | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 3:57 PM

Pete De Bonte:

NB.Mick:
Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs.  I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

I'm still trying to figure out what you are saying and I think perhaps I do now. Faithlife often adjusts the lowest bid to account for lots of bidders. In the example about Faithlife would probably lower the lowest bidding until from $2 to $1. In the end everyone would pay $1 and Faithlife would cover their costs of initial production.

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David J. Wilson | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 4:42 PM

Math is extraordinarily difficult to understand as we work with many different concepts and each of us is familiar with only a few of them and easily confused by most of what is outside our immediate experience.

Take bidding for example; most often associated with auctions in which the highest bid across the finish line takes the prize and in most cases there is only one prize. Some sales happen and once across the finish line the salesman admits he has not one but ten and asks if anyone else would like one at the final price.....  That is NOT how Community Pricing works.

Explaining math to a layman is NOT an easy task either: take the standard Newfoundland math problem: what is one plus one plus another one ?

Obviously it depends.  In some cases 1+1+1 =0
If the first one is a hungry seagull and the other two are puffins then the answer is no hungry seagull and no puffins, zero: simple.

So if you think it is simple explaining to a layman why doubling the number of $2 bids after a title crosses the line at $2 does not mean 100% profit to Faithlife then try explaining it to a non layman.  

The answer is of course 2 * 2 = 1, double the number of bids after it crosses the line at $2 and all the bidders get it for $1

Now tell me again why people just cannot seem to understand why 2*2 =1

(Math explanation provided solely to keep this post at the top of the list so that everyone viewing the forums gets to see it and bid at least $1 so everyone gets it for a $1   We still need 30% MORE bidders before it closes, but still a good chance as most people do not bid until Thursday evening or Friday morning.  Don't get me started on probabilities and proving why I told Bruce a while back in the other thread that I think this one would go for $1).

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Pete De Bonte:

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs.  I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).

As per https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about, "With Community Pricing, you pay the lowest price that covers production costs." That means Faithlife chooses the lowest price that covers costs, even if that produces less revenue and profit for us. In this (contrived) example that would mean the winning bid would be $1.

Even if 10,000 people bid $10 for this title, we would still charge each bidder only $1 because it's the lowest cost for you.

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Pete De Bonte | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 6:09 PM

Bradley Grainger (Faithlife):
If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).…Even if 10,000 people bid $10 for this title, we would still charge each bidder only $1 because it's the lowest cost for you.

Thank you, Bradley: that's clear!  All the official examples that I'd previously seen only illustrated how you get to exactly 100%, not how additional bids help lower the price further.

Suggestions for clarifying this on Logos.com:

  1. Could something like your >100% example be added to https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about?   Although I have now found the "If you like working with numbers and want all the details, click here." on that page and I do like working with numbers, your illustration clarifies the >100% scenario while still keeping it relatively simple. : )
  2. Could a link to https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about be provided at https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/?  The communitypricing page is on the Logos.com store menu, and earlier I found that page via a search engine, but I hadn't found communitypricing/about.

Thanks again! : )

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Robert M. Warren | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 6:23 PM

Pondering all this is too much like work.

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Mark | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 6:32 PM

Bradley Grainger (Faithlife):
If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).

Yes, but if 5000 people bid $2, then it will close at $2. If in the last week or two a bidder encourages people to bid lower, it can drive up the percentage of people who bid at the lower price and cause more to come on board, thus possibly successfully lowering the bid before closing.

The con of this strategy is that one might forget to change his bid back to the higher bid (if the lower bid was unsuccessful) the day before closing, and thus lose out on a great price.

If bidders remain at $2 and new bidders bid at $1, they may drive the price down to $1.  But if they do not have enough new bidders, they will not get the resource at community pricing.

On this resource, if every $2 bidder changed their bid to $1, then it would not close on Friday,nor ever, until there were enough bidders.  But the smaller price could cause more to bid.  I am not changing my bid from $2 to $1 on this resource.  But I have and would on other resources if it meant a potential significant drop in price.

Okay...time for others to blast my logic...

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JT (alabama24) | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 6:56 PM

Mark:
Okay...time for others to blast my logic...

Sure. I'll take the challenge. Stick out tongue

Mark:
If in the last week or two a bidder encourages people to bid lower, it can drive up the percentage of people who bid at the lower price and cause more to come on board, thus possibly successfully lowering the bid before closing.

There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1. If the current winning bid is $2 (100%) and a user moves his bid from $2 to $1, If the $1 price point had 70% before the bid was switched, guess how much it will have after the switch to the lower price point? Go ahead, guess. 

The answer is 70%. Not 70.1% Not 70.01%. It will be 70% because, as I have said over and over, a bid of $2 is also a bid of $1. What a bid of $1 is NOT is a bid of $2, so if it closes @ $2, you will lose out. 

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Mark | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 8:04 PM

alabama24:
so if it closes @ $2, you will lose out. 

Yes, that is what I said. 

alabama24:
There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1

Yes, a bid for $2 is also a bid for $1.  I agree.  But I disagree that there is never a reason to do so.  Look back at what I wrote.  I know there are those on the forum who follow my logic.

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JT (alabama24) | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 8:34 PM

Mark:
I disagree that there is never a reason to do so.  Look back at what I wrote.  I know there are those on the forum who follow my logic.

I am not understanding your logic. How would a user moving their bid from $2 to $1 encourage anyone to bid $1? As I said, the percentage will remain the same! 

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Bradley Grainger (Faithlife) | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 23 2015 10:04 PM

alabama24:

There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1. If the current winning bid is $2 (100%) and a user moves his bid from $2 to $1, If the $1 price point had 70% before the bid was switched, guess how much it will have after the switch to the lower price point? Go ahead, guess. 

The answer is 70%. Not 70.1% Not 70.01%. It will be 70%

Yes, but the $2 price point might drop from 100% to 99.9%, because you lowered your bid from $2 to $1. If it does (a big if), then the CP title might not close for another week, which would allow more users to bid (at $1 or higher) which might eventually raise the $1 price point from 70% to 70.1% to 100%.

OTOH, it's more like that the $2 price point drops from, say, 110% to 109.9% (if you lower your bid) so you have to get on the forums and convince hundreds of others to lower their bids simultaneously. And all that does is (potentially) stop the title crossing at $2. (And maybe it still does and now you miss out.) It doesn't help it cross at $1 at all; that requires hundreds of new bidders (as you already know).

Anyway, the best strategy is what we consistently recommend: Bid the most you would pay.

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