Pre-Pubs at Christmas?

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This post has 47 Replies | 5 Followers

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Dan Pritchett | Forum Activity | Posted: Mon, Nov 15 2010 3:44 PM

We have a lot of Pre-Pubs that we could ship in December. Some people don't have any room on their credit cards at that time of year, and would prefer to have nothing ship off Pre-Pub at all. Others want their ttiles as soon as they are ready (if not before!) and don't care what time of year it is.

We know there is no way to make everyone happy, but we do want to try to reach out in advance and get a better feel for what you would like us to do.

Should we delay Pre-Pubs that are scheduled to release in December until after the first of the new year? Is there a specific cut-off date that we should use? Ship all Pre-Pubs up until December "x" and then no more until January "x"?

What are your thoughts? How can we serve the most people the best way possible?

Posts 10115
Denise | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 3:59 PM

I'm one of the ship ASAP people, since the balances hit my card and I'm no where near its limits. But I understand for some people it hits their wallet immediately (card limits, etc). So I'm willing to wait if needed by others.


Posts 5613
Todd Phillips | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:07 PM

Dan Pritchett:
We have a lot of Pre-Pubs that we could ship in December. 

Do you mean there are some ready that don't have ship dates listed yet?  Because I only see 4 pre-pubs currently listed for December, two for January, and 4 for Q1-2011. 

I would prefer you ship the ones already listed, but not add any new ones in December.  Especially if you are planning any Christmas specials.  Big Smile

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Michael Childs | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:09 PM

Count me as one who would appreciate a slow down in pre-pubs during December.  I will need the money for Christmas, and I would like to have a little cash left in case of hoped for Christmas specials from Logos.

"In all cases, the Church is to be judged by the Scripture, not the Scripture by the Church," John Wesley

Posts 575
Pam Larson | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:12 PM

Todd Phillips:
Because I only see 4 pre-pubs currently listed for December, two for January, and 4 for Q1-2011. 

I have 25 pre-pubs that say December.

For me, the credit card cut-off date is the 18th, so I'd be perfectly happy if they all came the day before Christmas. Smile

Is there any update on what's happening with the Anchor Yale Reference Library? Might that be one of the December pre-pubs?

 

Posts 8601
TCBlack | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:35 PM

I'm one of those who is just plain out of money in this year's book budget.  I've only got a trickle slated to come through Nov and Dec right now.  I can handle them.  But a flood would drown me I'm afraid.

Short answer: I like delays.

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Ward Walker | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:40 PM

The psychological impact of a delay in billing until next year would be helpful for me and my house... even though Jan is usually my fiscally lean month.

  I've got to get a new roof for Christmas...Sad  While I hope Logos offers some Christmas specials, I'm probably unable to take on more than I've already committed to.  Darn that Zondervan 2 offering...Wink

P.S. Could 2011 be "opposite year" for billing and Logos process orders in reverse alphabetical order?  I think I always wind up waiting a couple days (usually across a weekend) between when others get their resources and when mine electronically post.

Posts 3163
Dominick Sela | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:52 PM

If it can be done in a way not to adversely affect people, I am definitely in the "Ship ASAP!!!!!!" Club!

I am especially looking forward to Anchor, Raymond Brown, Pseudepigrapha, and other Yale Press resources that got delayed.

Thanks!

Posts 264
Michael G. Halpern | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 4:58 PM

33 on Pre-Pub for $2065.40...any delay would be very helpful...unless you want to work something else out Big Smile

Posts 8893
fgh | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 5:11 PM

I'd prefer getting them when they're ready, but I guess there's nothing I'm really desperate for. Though AYBRL would be nice...

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Matthew C Jones | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 5:32 PM

Delay sounds good. My projects are absorbing my funds.

  • My daughter is getting married Decenber 14th.  Left Hug Right Hug
  • My home's electrical upgrade is caught in a power struggle between the electrical company and the building inspector with me playing peacemaker trying to get the job done. Idea
  • Christmas is at my parents in Kansas. Gift
  • And I want Zondervan Bundle #2 almost as much as I wanted Zondervan Bundle #1. Geeked

Yeah, delay sounds good. Time

Dan Pritchett:
Ship all Pre-Pubs up until December "x" and then no more until January "x"?

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Posts 88
Nancy A. Almodovar | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 5:34 PM

Hubby does not want me putting anymore on the CC, so we're trying to use the debit card for the Holidays...maybe you could try releasing them during tax refund season Idea

Posts 5613
Todd Phillips | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 5:41 PM

Todd Phillips:
Because I only see 4 pre-pubs currently listed for December, two for January, and 4 for Q1-2011. 

Yeah, I had "&unlocked=yes" in my prepub URL (i.e., only the ones I've ordered).  Unfortunately there's no indication on the page that it's filtered for that, which is why I was confused.  I thought it wasn't showing everything, but I couldn't figure out why.

If you do delay, let us know--I will reorder products I've canceled.

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Mark Smith | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 6:06 PM

Dan Pritchett:
What are your thoughts?

I'd be fine with what's currently in the line-up for December. I wouldn't want you to add anything.

I have a few items coming up in January so putting off the December ones will just make January quite a bit harder.

I appreciate Logos' sensitivity to this. I can go either way but would would prefer we stick to what's planned.

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Posts 44
Bob Fuller | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 8:41 PM

This is doubtless problematic. However, what about, during this month, an email to those with pre-pubs that are ready to go telling them they are ready, and letting them download them on their own. Then all those not downloaded in December will download automatically on January 15? Just an idea. Probably more work, but then, my ideas usually are.

Posts 18651
Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Nov 15 2010 11:10 PM

It doesn't matter much to me. I can afford what's coming down the pipeline to me in December, but nothing is so crucial that I can't wait for it. The works I'm most looking forward to that are currently scheduled to ship in December are The Practical Works of the Rev. Richard Baxter, The Harvard Classics and Fiction Collection, and the Dictionary of Major Biblical Interpreters.

If this is going to become a continuing problem as Logos produces more and more books, I think you're going to need to come up with a long-term solution. Maybe you could figure out some formula for whether you should ship a product now or delay it, such as this:

X = 0

For (each person who ordered this product)

{

  • T = total they've spent on Logos so far 
  • L = how long they've been a Logos customer
  • F = T/L * c1    // rough estimate of how much they can afford per month; c1 is some constant factor to be determined
  • S = sum of how much they've got shipping in pre-pub this month if everything you're ready to ship were to ship
  • P = price they locked in for this product
  • if (F > S) then A = 1, else A = {hand-waving: some relationship between F, S, and P, possibly taking into account the prices of the other pre-pubs they've got shipping}   // rough estimate of likelihood that they can afford this product this month
  • O = how long ago they ordered this product
  • N = number of customers who ordered this product (gauge of its popularity)
  • W = O * N * c2   // rough estimate of how badly they want this product now (independent of whether they can afford it now); c2 is some other contant factor to be determined
  • // Optionally, allow people to enter a number from 1-10 on each pre-pub as it comes close to shipping to rate how badly they want it soon. And factor this into the formula instead of the rough W computation above.
  • B = (A * W) * c3 // rough estimate of probability that they will buy (i.e., not cancel) this pre-pub if you ship it this month; c3 is yet another constant factor to be determined
  • X = X + (B * P)  // accumulate expected revenue for this product if you do ship it this month

}

Run through this computation for each of the products you're considering shipping this month, compare the data for each of them and figure out which combination of them makes the most sense to ship now to maximize your revenue and customer happiness. Sorry, I'll leave the rest of the math up to you... I'm sure it will involve differential equations, multivariable calculus, or Fast Fourier transforms Smile

I guess no formula is perfect, and you're going to disappoint some people no matter what. To paraphrase Abraham Lincoln: "You can please some of the people all of the time, and you might please all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time."

Maybe this is a good time to introduce a payment plan option for pre-pubs. Many people have asked for it in the past. Is that something under consideration?

Posts 383
Daniel Bender | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Nov 16 2010 12:58 AM

Dan, thank you for this post. I don't put anything on a CC; it all goes on my debit card. I have a rather large amount coming out of my account between now and the end of January--too much for this time of year. However, my book allowance does get rejuvanated at the first of the year. I have been waiting for some time for my Pre-Pubs and would prefer to bite the bullet and have them when they are finished. I have already planned on not pursuing any Christmas specials (if offered) this year so that I could afford them. But if they are delayed I will be content to wait.

Posts 1493
Josh | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Nov 16 2010 1:41 AM

Maybe there can be an option for customers to retain their pre-pub price for up to 4 weeks after a pre-pub is released. Allowing them the option to pay (and then obtain) the new release later if their financial situation calls for it. Providing up to 4 weeks to "claim" the sale price, seems to me, a good amount of time (2 pay checks) for people to accommodate expensive (or multiple) pre-pub releases while also limiting the scope and potential of any "discount holding" abuse. 

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Ted Hans | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Nov 16 2010 2:19 AM

Thanks Dan for taking the time to find out what your customers think on this Issue.

I do not think it is practically or advisable to stop all Pre-Pubs during the festive season. That would mean, come next year there would be a flood of Pre-Pubs coming down the pipeline which will be difficult for your customers to handle. What I would suggest is that you limit the amount that ships during that period but to stop all Pre-Pubs will only create more problems down the line. What you decide should ship or not ship is something really you will need to figure out.

After the festive season will folks have enough cash to take on a lot more Pre-Pubs if there is stoppage during December,  I doubt it. Please let some Pre-Pubs ship but not all 36. 36 Pre-PubsSurpriseSad not practically either.

And all this will depend on, If the Anchor Yale ships this year. Thanks for listening.

 

Ted

 

 

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Posts 235
Tom Geswein | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Nov 16 2010 2:56 AM

Keeping in mind the Christmas special(s) that may come up this year, the delay could be helpful for some of our wallets...

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