Community Pricing Data Crunching - Price Predictions!

Page 1 of 2 (30 items) 1 2 Next >
This post has 29 Replies | 4 Followers

Posts 1706
LogosEmployee
Bob Pritchett | Forum Activity | Posted: Thu, Dec 26 2013 10:18 AM

I love Community Pricing! It helps us offer more content by offering you the lowest possible prices. The more orders, the lower the price!

Following are the top-ten most popular CP titles by number of bids. Some of these are 'stuck' on price points that will likely never make it, so I've calculated the actual bid price we would need, based on present orders, to put the title into production. If you really want to see this title available, you need to change your bid.

Thousands of people have participated in CP. I did some playing around to see what would happen if everyone who right now has a bid in on the most popular title (Hastings' A Dictionary of the Bible (5 vols.)) were to place a bid on every listed title. What is the lowest the prices could go?

50 titles would go to $1. 43 would go to $2. 34 would go to $3. 179 titles would be $5 or less.

What if all the Hastings bidders bid on all the titles already hitting 50-60% on the progress meter? To take these twenty-four titles over the line with the present number of bidders would require bids totaling $1,304. If all the Hastings bidders also bid on these, the total for all 24 titles would be $147. The Speaker's Commentary (13 vols.) would go for just $18; The Bible in Seven Acts: Herod to Jesus (a brand new work with teaching media) would go to $6.

  • The Works of Thomas Reid (2 vols.) -- $3 
  • The Church and the Twentieth Century -- $1 
  • Monasticism in the Orthodox Churches -- $1 
  • Works of Ovid and Horace (16 vols.) -- $4 
  • Classic Studies in Jewish History during the Time of Jesus (14 vols.) -- $8 
  • Works of Xenophon (14 vols.) -- $5 
  • Classic Studies on the Heidelberg Catechism (16 vols.) -- $11 
  • St. John of Kronstadt (2 vols.) -- $1 
  • Select Works of Christoph Ernst Luthardt (4 vols.) -- $2 
  • Lutheran Hymns and Prayer Books (4 vols.) -- $3 
  • The Speaker's Commentary (13 vols.) -- $18 
  • Samuel Prideaux Tregelles Collection (2 vols.) -- $3 
  • System of Christian Ethics -- $1 
  • Medical Works of Antiquity (16 vols.) -- $6 
  • The Works of John Gill (21 vols.) -- $31 
  • Translation of the Vulgate Collection (4 vols.) -- $4 
  • A Dictionary of Philosophy in the Words of Philosophers -- $2 
  • Polybius' The Histories (12 vols.) -- $4 
  • George Barker Stevens Collection (6 vols.) -- $3 
  • Hesiod, the Homeric Hymns and Homerica (2 vols.) -- $1 
  • A Dictionary of the Bible (5 vols.) -- $24 
  • The Rudder (2 vols.) -- $4 
  • Original Letters Relative to the English Reformation (2 vols.) -- $1 
  • The Bible in Seven Acts: Herod to Jesus (Act VI) -- $6

(Note that above I suggest a price of $32 for A Dictionary of the Bible, and below $24. That's because I don't think it's realistic that EVERY present bidder on a title will go to new, higher price. So $32 is what is most likely to put A Dictionary of the Bible over the line; but if everyone who bid on it raised their bid, it would make it at just $24.)

What are the best possible deals? If everybody who bid on A Dictionary of the Bible was willing to bid on other titles, some of the best deals, relative to present leading bids, would be:

  • Select Works of Archibald Boyd (8 vols.) -- $2 
  • Select Works of Charles Walker (5 vols.) -- $2 
  • Select Works of Temple Chevallier (3 vols.) -- $3 
  • Wordsworth's Church History (4 vols.) -- $3 
  • James Macknight’s Commentary on the Apostolic Epistles (6 vols.) -- $8 
  • Works of William Ralph Inge (20 vols.) -- $8 
  • Life and Works of St. Irenaeus of Lyons (5 vols.) -- $4 
  • Select Works of William Temple (11 vols.) -- $5 
  • Select Works of William Ridgeway (7 vols.) -- $6 
  • The Theological Works of Herbert Thorndike (10 vols.) -- $7 
  • Select Gifford Lectures Delivered at St. Andrews (15 vols.) -- $10 
  • Select Gifford Lectures Delivered at Aberdeen (13 vols.) -- $6 
  • Jewish Quarterly Review (13 vols.) -- $13 
  • George Bull Collection (13 vols.) -- $7 
  • Kenrick's Translation of the Vulgate with Commentary (6 vols.) -- $7 
  • Augustine’s Expositions on the Book of Psalms (6 vols.) -- $6 
  • Horace Bushnell Collection (20 vols.) -- $7 
  • Select Gifford Lectures Delivered at Glasgow (17 vols.) -- $13 
  • Charles Augustus Briggs Collection (15 vols.) -- $12 
  • The Theological Works of William Beveridge (12 vols.) -- $8 
  • Chronology of the Ancient World Collection (6 vols.) -- $11 
  • Select Works on the Thirty-Nine Articles (23 vols.) -- $15 
  • The Works of Arthur Penrhyn Stanley (32 vols.) -- $15 
  • Select Works of Aristotle (40 vols.) -- $16 
  • Patrologiae Cursus Completus, Series Graeca, Part 1 (vols. 1–18) -- $44 
  • Encyclopaedia Biblica (4 vols.) -- $22 
  • The Works of the Rev. Richard Watson (15 vols.) -- $18 
  • Lexham Methods Series (4 vols.) -- $34 
  • Bampton Lecture Series, 1780–1920 (127 vols.) -- $46 
  • The Collected Writings of John Nelson Darby (47 vols.) -- $36 
  • The History of the Popes from the Close of the Middle Ages (40 vols.) -- $26 
  • The Sacred Books of the East (50 vols.) -- $52

-- Bob

Posts 1602
Deacon Steve | Forum Activity | Replied: Thu, Dec 26 2013 2:02 PM

Thanks for the analysis, Bob!  Very helpful.  I've been able to make some updates to my pre-orders.

Smile

Posts 1892
mike | Forum Activity | Replied: Thu, Dec 26 2013 2:15 PM

off question,

Bob, would there be discount on Theological Journal 1-15 anytime soon?

I've been hoping that this holiday, this journal would be included in the thanksgiving/christmas sales..

do you mind answering?

Posts 485
Randy Lane | Forum Activity | Replied: Thu, Dec 26 2013 4:15 PM

Re:Encyclopaedia of Religion and Ethics (13 vols.)

Bob, If this is in the top 10, and $30 with that many bids is not even enough to cover a third of the costs, why would you set the minimum bid amount at $10 when the item had its debut on CP?

Posts 5322
DIsciple II | Forum Activity | Replied: Fri, Dec 27 2013 3:14 AM

Bump up your bids Folks!

Posts 124
Mark Ziebold | Forum Activity | Replied: Fri, Dec 27 2013 9:17 AM

Done, and copy this thread to each thread discussing the specific work.  I am taking this to the John Gill threads.  

Posts 1706
LogosEmployee
Bob Pritchett | Forum Activity | Replied: Fri, Dec 27 2013 9:44 AM

mike:
Bob, would there be discount on Theological Journal 1-15 anytime soon?

I don't know, since the marketing department handles that, but I doubt it, since this isn't a Logos product, but rather one produced by another company. Sorry!

Posts 1706
LogosEmployee
Bob Pritchett | Forum Activity | Replied: Fri, Dec 27 2013 9:45 AM

Randy Lane:
Bob, If this is in the top 10, and $30 with that many bids is not even enough to cover a third of the costs, why would you set the minimum bid amount at $10 when the item had its debut on CP?

I think that when it was posted someone neglected to think through the math, or was over-optimistic about the number of bids it would receive.

Posts 2038
Unix | Forum Activity | Replied: Fri, Dec 27 2013 10:34 AM

Thanks Bob for bringing these things up again and giving realistic calculations!

Encyclopedia Britannica (32 vols.) needs many more bidders, bidding a little higher than the current projected price. I've posted about this recently: Raise bids to $120: Encyclopedia Britannica (32 vols.)! ... I think it went up almost ~⅔% since.

I'm in on the English Bible Collection with (higher than the current projected price) $80 bids. Would there be any chance of Logos adjusting the size of the Collection, it's currently slightly too big? (The New Testament of Our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ (Common English Version) would need to be kept in the collection though.)

Aply!
trulyergonomic.com 6,200own
12G A9-9420 V8.6 Acc 11
d:'13Q3 12G

Posts 13399
Mark Barnes | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 8:41 AM

It would be good if CP pages could be modified slightly to encourage higher bids. There's a tendency for most of us to click on the high-point of the curve, rather than the real maximum we'd be willing to pay.

In particular, it might be helpful if the "Bid Now" price and button was set manually to the mid-way point, at least at the beginning. That might encourage CP curves to start out at more realistic prices.

Posts 9250
Forum MVP
Bruce Dunning | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 8:46 AM

Mark Barnes:
It would be good if CP pages could be modified slightly to encourage higher bids. There's a tendency for most of us to click on the high-point of the curve, rather than the real maximum we'd be willing to pay.

I agree with you Mark. Everyone would love to get a resource as inexpensively as possible but those first bids placed sometimes are so low that it is very unlikely that it would even happen.

Mark Barnes:
In particular, it might be helpful if the "Bid Now" price and button was set manually to the mid-way point, at least at the beginning. That might encourage CP curves to start out at more realistic prices.

I'm not sure I fully understand what you are suggesting here. Could you explain this a bit more?

Using adventure and community to challenge young people to continually say "yes" to God

Posts 4028
abondservant | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 8:58 AM

I think I understand what Mark is suggesting...

If for a given title the high end of the CP pricing scale is 100$ and the low end is 1$ the defacto "bid now" price should be 50$, or right in the middle...

However Bob has said on a few occasions that it usually ends up working out to be about 4$ a volume when every things said and done. So why not have it start there; and remain there automatically until 10 or 20% is reached?

L2 lvl4, L3 Scholars, L4 Scholars, L5 Platinum,  L6 Collectors. L7 Baptist Portfolio. L8 Platinum & WORDsearch

Posts 4028
abondservant | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 9:02 AM

Another suggestion for the CP's languishing with no bids is to send out an email to every bidder with the same information... "Hey, we see you are interested in (title), we noticed its been in cp for (period of time) and just wanted to let you know that we've been doing the math; with the current number of bidders, to put the title into production today, the bids would need to be (xx$) at a minimum. Thanks and God Bless!

Bob <><  "

Or something to that effect haha. I suspect the forum users don't comprise the total cp user base and that to have 100% reach into that user base email will be required.

L2 lvl4, L3 Scholars, L4 Scholars, L5 Platinum,  L6 Collectors. L7 Baptist Portfolio. L8 Platinum & WORDsearch

Posts 13399
Mark Barnes | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 12:59 PM

Bruce Dunning:

Mark Barnes:
In particular, it might be helpful if the "Bid Now" price and button was set manually to the mid-way point, at least at the beginning. That might encourage CP curves to start out at more realistic prices.

I'm not sure I fully understand what you are suggesting here. Could you explain this a bit more?

There are two ways to bid on a CP title. You can either click on the graph, or you can click on the "Bid Now" button:

The price above that button is the current high-point of the graph. So, if I'm the first person who notices a new CP, and bid $1, that button is going to tell other users "Projected Price $1", and clicking Bid now will place a $1 bid (which is no good to anyone, really).

What I'm suggesting is that the Projected Price be fixed somewhere in the midrange, at least until there have been sufficient bids to be more confident about what the community is willing to pay. Users who want to bid lower can still do so, by clicking on the graph, of course.

Another idea would be to modify the text that says "Your bid is likely to be successful" so that when the curve growth is below expectations it says, "Your bid is likely to be successful, but increasing your bid should help to speed up production."

Posts 18888
Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 1:29 PM

I've upped my bid on most of these to the minimum amount possible above what you said is the required CP price to get these into production. But for several of them, that's not even possible because the bidding range doesn't go up high enough (see my additions in italics).

Bob Pritchett:

Could you please have someone adjust the bidding ranges so it's clearer that these need much higher bids to get into production? Thanks!

Posts 654
David Bailey | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 1:48 PM

Rosie Perera:
Could you please have someone adjust the bidding ranges so it's clearer that these need much higher bids to get into production? Thanks!

Indeed, I may be wrong about this, but before the CP is announced publicly, does not Logos have an inkling of an idea of how much it would cost to put a CP into production at the start? Place an arrow on the graph to illustrate the current calculated value.  This value (arrow) would move on the graph, based on the current number of bidders and their price points on the graph.  It would help us make better bid decisions.  What do you think?

Never mind, the percentages will tell us on the graph, but not the actual calculated value.

David

Posts 18888
Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 2:13 PM

David Bailey:
Indeed, I may be wrong about this, but before the CP is announced publicly, does not Logos have an inkling of an idea of how much it would cost to put a CP into production at the start?

Yes, they do know how much it would cost to put into production, but they have no idea how popular it's going to be, thus what price everyone who bids would need to be willing to pay in order to reach that cost by multiplying bid price x number of bidders. Sometimes they figure this out part way through when bidding isn't going as well as they'd expected, in which case they do adjust the bidding scale. But when they start out, they just take an educated guess as to what the high and low should be, and it's prone to error.

Posts 654
David Bailey | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 2:54 PM

Rosie Perera:
Sometimes they figure this out part way through when bidding isn't going as well as they'd expected, in which case they do adjust the bidding scale. But when they start out, they just take an educated guess as to what the high and low should be, and it's prone to error.

I see.  Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps Logos needs some refinement to their trend analysis or regression models for CP? Perhaps they can come up with something spiffy that will automatically adjust the range of the bid scale, say every two weeks, based on the number of bidders that enter or leave the bid, the total bid prices, and with the difference between 100% production cost and the sum of all bid prices so far. Logos has bright minds working over there, so I'm sure they can refine their CP process.  Smile

David

Posts 1178
David Wilson | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 3:10 PM

Bids adjusted and some new bids added.....

Posts 1357
Edwin Bowden | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 1 2014 3:54 PM

abondservant:

Another suggestion for the CP's languishing with no bids is to send out an email to every bidder with the same information... "Hey, we see you are interested in (title), we noticed its been in cp for (period of time) and just wanted to let you know that we've been doing the math; with the current number of bidders, to put the title into production today, the bids would need to be (xx$) at a minimum. Thanks and God Bless!

Bob <><  "

Or something to that effect haha. I suspect the forum users don't comprise the total cp user base and that to have 100% reach into that user base email will be required.

Great idea!

Page 1 of 2 (30 items) 1 2 Next > | RSS