Just a few more bids and Witherington will hit $80!

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This post has 18 Replies | 1 Follower

Posts 1129
Keith Larson | Forum Activity | Posted: Wed, Jul 2 2014 4:43 AM

I want to encourage people to up their bids to $80 or bid of the first time on Witherington. In fact, it looks likely that if everyone who bid $60 would up their bid to just $65 this resource would hit $65 today! (Just look at how close $60 is). $65 would be a shoe in! Once it hits $65 I am sure many more people would jump on board and we may go as low as $50 when this is all over.

Posts 1561
John Kight | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 5:32 AM

Yes

For book reviews and more visit sojotheo.com 

Posts 3937
abondservant | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 5:54 AM

https://www.logos.com/product/42481/logos-mobile-education-nt221-the-wisdom-of-john-a-socio-rhetorical-commentary-on-johannine-literature

this is the link in case anyone was wondering. I've been in at 90 for a while now.

L2 lvl4, L3 Scholars, L4 Scholars, L5 Platinum,  L6 Collectors. L7 Baptist Portfolio. L8 Baptist Platinum.

Posts 10116
Denise | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 6:58 AM

https://www.logos.com/product/42481/logos-mobile-education-nt221-the-wisdom-of-john-a-socio-rhetorical-commentary-on-johannine-literature 

(Oddly on my browser, the above link would highlight with a mouseover; it knows it's a link. But it doesn't 'activate' nor copy as a link).


Posts 1825
mike | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 8:24 AM

i put $300

Posts 943
Everett Headley | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 8:32 AM

Anyone know if these have any accreditation that might transfer, or are they simply for the lay/student to grow deeper?

Posts 754
David A Egolf | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 11:14 AM

Keith Larson:

I want to encourage people to up their bids to $80 or bid of the first time on Witherington. In fact, it looks likely that if everyone who bid $60 would up their bid to just $65 this resource would hit $65 today! (Just look at how close $60 is). $65 would be a shoe in! Once it hits $65 I am sure many more people would jump on board and we may go as low as $50 when this is all over.

Given that we have over a week to work with, I believe that your strategy is flawed.  $80 is simply too much for some people to be interested.  Those folks may not even open this thread in the forum.  Furthermore, the folks interested in the product at a lower price will only be slightly more interested even if the price drops to $80 from $85.

Instead, we should be encouraging people to bid $60!  If $60 becomes an even more prominent upward notch in the curve, then people will be encouraged to jump in at that price. 

Won't more people be interested to jump in at $60 that at $85?  Therefore, let's still push for $60.

The Wednesday just prior to the price freeze is the time to advertise for small increments.

Since you have put $80 in the title of this thread, this is the last post I intend to add to it.  I prefer to bump the original thread which should get more readers.

Posts 1129
Keith Larson | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 11:59 AM

David A Egolf:

Keith Larson:

I want to encourage people to up their bids to $80 or bid of the first time on Witherington. In fact, it looks likely that if everyone who bid $60 would up their bid to just $65 this resource would hit $65 today! (Just look at how close $60 is). $65 would be a shoe in! Once it hits $65 I am sure many more people would jump on board and we may go as low as $50 when this is all over.

Given that we have over a week to work with, I believe that your strategy is flawed.  $80 is simply too much for some people to be interested.  Those folks may not even open this thread in the forum.  Furthermore, the folks interested in the product at a lower price will only be slightly more interested even if the price drops to $80 from $85.

Instead, we should be encouraging people to bid $60!  If $60 becomes an even more prominent upward notch in the curve, then people will be encouraged to jump in at that price. 

Won't more people be interested to jump in at $60 that at $85?  Therefore, let's still push for $60.

The Wednesday just prior to the price freeze is the time to advertise for small increments.

Since you have put $80 in the title of this thread, this is the last post I intend to add to it.  I prefer to bump the original thread which should get more readers.

A bid of $80 IS a bid of every price point below $80. There were a number of people who were attempting to manipulate the system by encouraging people to bid $60 so as to extend bidding for as long a period in hopes of getting a lower price. Whether or not this was a wise strategy is now a moot point. The product is going into production, the only question is how low a price will it go for.

Now the best way to "manipulate" the system is to encourage everyone to bid even higher than they are willing to pay, they can always lower their bid next Friday morning July 11 if you do not like the final price. A lot of people do not understand that you don't pay what you bid, but what the final price is. Fore example, my bid on May 15 was $150, but as of this moment I will pay $85 and most likely much lower.

Posts 1129
Keith Larson | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 12:10 PM

Another way at looking at this. Seeing how close $60 is, if every one who bid $60 would up their bid to $65 it would cross the $65 line. The fact that there is such a dip at $65 show there are a large number of people sitting on $60 bids. Honestly, is this REALLY their maximum bid? Those people need to ask themselves if this produce was going for $65 next Friday, would they really miss out for $5?

Posts 10116
Denise | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 1:05 PM

The two David's points are correct ... Logos sets the quoted 'price' at the lowest breakeven price.  So for example, if all the $80 bidders simply withdrew their bids (plus everyone else above that), then the quoted price would drop precipitously (though not be 'over the line').

At that point the prophet's (David Paul) trainload of new $60 bidders would arrive at the station.  At this new price, the $80 bidders and above could then re-insert their bids, in which case the price would drop yet again.

Now, if the $60 and above bidders withdrew their bids, thus dropping the price to maybe $50, I'm sure there would be yet another trainload of $50 bidders (and so on).

Actually, as nutty as this scenario sounds, the correct answer would have been to start out much lower for a Ben course.


Posts 4761
David Paul | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jul 2 2014 1:23 PM

I will consider the possibility of Logos paying me to take one of their courses, but I will have to consult my calendar to see if it fits into my busy schedule.

Posts 2964
tom | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 3:09 PM

It is now at $50.

Posts 175
Bill Coley | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 7:38 PM

Denise:
The two David's points are correct ... Logos sets the quoted 'price' at the lowest breakeven price.  So for example, if all the $80 bidders simply withdrew their bids (plus everyone else above that), then the quoted price would drop precipitously (though not be 'over the line').

Denise, I don't see how this is mathematically possible.

Logos surely sets the current price for a CP resource at the lowest price at which the total number of bidders willing to pay that amount or higher would meet the publishing costs for that resource. For example, if the costs of publishing a resource are $20,000, then for the projected price of the resource to be, say, $50, there need to be at least 400 people bidding $50 or more. If, as in your scenario, a group of bidders simply withdraws their bids, the total amount of revenue Logos can from bidders *decreases,* meaning that the projected price, if anything, will have to rise... until new (or returning) bidders make up the lost revenue.

An example:

  • COSTS: $20,000
  • BIDDERS @ $50 OR HIGHER: 400
  • PROJECTED REVENUE: $20,000, SETTING PRICE @ $50
  • 20 BIDDERS IN AT $80 WITHDRAW THEIR BIDS, WHICH PRODUCES REVENUE LOSS OF $1,000 (assuming projected price of $50)
  • PROJECTED REVENUE DECLINES TO $19,000

Costs are no longer met. The projected price will have to rise, or additional bidders @ $50 or higher will have to come in to support the $50 price.

But what if the price instead declines, say to $40? Logos then needs to make up, not only the $1,000 lost when the $80 bidders withdrew, but also the $3,800 lost when the other 380 bidders each contributes $10 less to the revenue stream. But if there are enough $40 bidders to make up for that $4,800 in lost revenue, the projected price would already have been at $40!

Looked at a very different way, when taken to its logical end, the notion that withdrawing bidders lower the projected price means the lowest price will come when all bidders withdraw, which of course cannot be true.

The math doesn't add up for me. Am I missing something?

Posts 1602
Deacon Steve | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 8:43 PM

Bill Coley:

Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something.  Way too many assumptions.  Costs, bidders, withdrawals, projected revenue, etc.

Logos has built everything in.  It's now at $50 .. and could go lower with more bids.

Are you in?

Posts 175
Bill Coley | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 8:49 PM

Steve:

Bill Coley:

Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something.  Way too many assumptions.  Costs, bidders, withdrawals, projected revenue, etc.

Logos has built everything in.  It's now at $50 .. and could go lower with more bids.

Are you in?

Yes, I'm in, but I don't see where anything I posted previously was based on assumptions; I think it was all based on math.

Logos must cover its costs at a projected price or that price can't be the final price.

No assumptions involved; just math.

Posts 4761
David Paul | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 8:53 PM

Far be it from me to ever take on the enormous task of trying to be Denise's interpreter (he said, just before he proceeded to do so), but I "think" she intended for those who withdrew their higher bids to rebid at the lower price, which was at $50 when she made the post.

Also, considering that nearly everything she says is between 90-100% tongue-in-cheek, I think she may have been imagining a CP game by which the clock is kept from ever kicking in by getting those who are bidding the peak price to switch their bids to the next lower price until it reaches a certain level close to closing (say 95%), and then having them do so again to next lower level, and so on until the price is close to $0. At least, given all I know about Denise, that is the kind of absurdist hypothetical I could easily see her coming up with.

Zip it!

Posts 18651
Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 9:07 PM

Bill Coley:
The math doesn't add up for me. Am I missing something?

I think she meant that the point on the graph at the (previously) quoted price would drop precipitously (thus no longer being 'over the line'), not that the strike price would go down. Though I might be mistaken. Others seem to have responded to her post assuming she meant something similar to what you thought she meant.

You are absolutely correct that if higher bidders pulled out, the strike price would go up not down.

Posts 15805
Forum MVP
Keep Smiling 4 Jesus :) | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jul 5 2014 9:56 PM

Bill Coley:
The math doesn't add up for me. Am I missing something?

Currently => https://www.logos.com/product/42481/logos-mobile-education-nt221-the-wisdom-of-john-a-socio-rhetorical-commentary-on-johannine-literature has:

Three dots are above 100 % coverage of estimated production costs.  If enough bids of $ 50 or less were canceled, then projected price would go up to $ 55.  Appears $ 50 bidding has ~10% more bids than $ 55 or higher.  If estimated production cost for 13 hours of video with Logos resource with transcription is $ 100,000 then $ 50 projected price needs a minimum of 2,000 bids for 100 % coverage.  For $ 55 projected price, 1,819 bids of $ 55 or higher are needed.  For projected price to drop to $ 45, then 11.15 % more bids of $ 45 or higher are needed.

When bidding crosses 100 % line, then a closing date and time is set.  At closing time, if enough bids have been canceled so 100 % of estimated production cost is no longer covered by any bid amount (all dots below 100 % line), then community pricing item remains open with projected price reflecting the most progress across all bids, which has happened a few times.

Keep Smiling Smile

Posts 8893
fgh | Forum Activity | Replied: Sun, Jul 6 2014 6:07 AM

Bill Coley:
Am I missing something?

You missed the date of her post as well as the part in bold:

Denise:
if all the $80 bidders simply withdrew their bids (plus everyone else above that), then the quoted price would drop precipitously (though not be 'over the line').

If, at the point in time when this was written, everyone at $80 or above had removed their bids, $80 would have sunk below the line, and everything below $80 would have sunk as well, though not as much. When no price has reached 100%, the highest peak becomes the "quoted price" (the price at the top of the page). In this case that would likely have been $60 or thereabouts (I don't remember exactly what the graph looked like).

And since the majority of bidders seem to never bid anything other than the quoted price, a quoted price of $60 has the psychological effect of drawing more $60 bidders than a quoted price of $80. Unfortunately, many people seem to rather miss out than bid below the going price.

Now I suggest we let this thread die. The heading may discourage new bidders by making them believe it's still above $80.

"The Christian way of life isn't so much an assignment to be performed, as a gift to be received."  Wilfrid Stinissen

Mac Pro OS 10.9.

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