Compendium of Christian Theology on Community Pricing

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Ted Hans | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:25 PM

Sorry to rain on the party but is anyone actually bidding or just debatingWink? Please place your bid here http://www.logos.com/communitypricing Thanks.

 

Ted

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Posts 320
John Bowling | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:26 PM

MJ. Smith:
The potential flaw in your logic is assuming that the "market price" set in the community forum is the same as the "market price" when it is out of community pricing. If you are to compare time vs. money which is what the tradeoff is, do you compare only against the price as it comes out of community pricing?

Well you have to take it in context. In my post the "market" is all of those bidding and, thus, the price you're paying is the highest market price if everyone bids the maximum.

When Logos moves the item to pre-pub they, Logos, may raise the price. Does this reflect a different market with a new market price? That's a little harder to answer. Eventually, only time will tell if Logos is selling the pre-pub at market price since that can only be determined by whether or not consumers are willing to pay for it at that price. It may in fact be that they are over pricing it, and if a lot of people are bidding and are bidding at their maximum value then we have some good reason to say they are over pricing it. [Edit: we might also take note of the fact that some pre-pubs have been "gathering interest" for a long long time. Is that because no one is interested or because the Logos price doesn't reflect the market price??]

Of course, one also has to take into consideration that under different circumstances persons may be willing to pay different amounts. Often, their willingness to pay such and such may be entirely irrational. In experimental psychology we ran an experiment studying what's called the "anchoring effect." The results, which have been confirmed numerous times and in other areas besides weight, are that person's judgments can be effected or shifted by introducing a new range of items (psychological or physical). (So, for example, if Logos puts a new price tag on an item and says "you save such and such" then this can serve as an artificial anchor for people.)

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Ted Hans | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:27 PM

Ted Hans:

Sorry to rain on the party but is anyone actually bidding or just debatingWink? Please place your bid here http://www.logos.com/communitypricing Thanks.

 

Ted

 

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MJ. Smith | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:30 PM

Storm

Umbrella

Me? I'm just reporting a forum bug that won't show me partying.

Orthodox Bishop Hilarion Alfeyev: "To be a theologian means to have experience of a personal encounter with God through prayer and worship."

Posts 39
Brandon | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:30 PM

MJ. Smith:
Rather than an auction, I would use the image of a horse race - your most rational bid will include predicting the future based on the facts and impressions at hand.

Ah yes, but with community pricing, I can 'change my horse' at any time. If another horse starts to jump out in front, I can switch my bid to him (or her Wink ).  So I might as well start with the lowest bid and wait to see which 'horse' jumps to an early lead.  If most people bid like this, the lowest price 'horse' would always jump out to an early lead and eventually win. If my horse starts to fall behind, I can then make my decision to back the 'horse' in the lead.

Plus, the community pricing resources usually move very slowly so I only have to check those that I have bid on every couple of weeks (or just wait for the forum peepz to send out a friendly reminder about resources that will be ending soon Big Smile ).

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Ted Hans | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 3:32 PM

MJ. Smith:

Storm

Umbrella

 

Me? I'm just reporting a forum bug that won't show me partying.

 

Nice one MJ, you do have a sense of humourBig Smile.

 

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Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Sat, Jan 9 2010 7:45 PM

Ted Hans:

MJ. Smith:

Storm

Umbrella

 

Me? I'm just reporting a forum bug that won't show me partying.

Nice one MJ, you do have a sense of humourBig Smile.

Bummer! Can't do a party-hat smiley. Funny way to report it, MJ! :-) But maybe they won't notice it unless you raise it as a separate thread.

Posts 3665
Floyd Johnson | Forum Activity | Replied: Sun, Jan 10 2010 9:03 AM

MJ. Smith:
Let's apply a little logic here Big Smile There are at least three possible goals in bidding:

  1. To purchase the product at the lowest possible cost [bid low]
  2. To receive the product as quickly as possible [bid high]
  3. To minimize the risk that production of this products slows a product you prefer [don't bid]

It seems to me that there is one more option - the one that I apply.  Bid what the product is worth to me.  Somethings are not worth (to me) adding to my library and I don't bid.  Other works are worth more, multi-volume works even more.  I will generally start at $20 per volume with a cap of $100.  I then ask myself, "Is this really worth this much to me?"  And adjust my bid by whatever the answer.  Sometimes up, sometimes down, and sometimes I will not bid.

I will also periodically review my bids - to balance them against my current bank account and against the current bidding history.  And, again, bids may go up or down depending on these factors.

I have found, using this strategy, that most items finally go into production for less than I what I bid.  Occasionally, I  to ask myself if the product is worth the higher final price to me.  Sometimes, I say yes; sometimes, I say no.  In the latter case, I am willing to walk away.  And sometimes, the final price goes down even further.

Just my personal strategy -

Yours because His,

 Floyd

 

Blessings,
Floyd

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Bob Pritchett | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Jan 11 2010 9:59 AM

Kevin Becker:
I think more information (ie. knowing the estimated production cost and have graph showing what-ifs based on the current level of interest) would make community pricing much more effective.

The information is embedded in the graph, though without the specifics. The 100% line represents the production costs, and the curve with points reflects the actual revenue generated if we sold the book at that price. So if you see that both $10 and $20 are at exactly 50%, you know that there are exactly twice as many $10 bids as $20.

We could show the actual numbers, or even add the number of bids as a column behind each price, but we didn't want to clutter and confuse things, and we don't want to expose actual units and costs. (It's not that we're secretive, it's that when we reveal actual numbers we tend to get into emotional arguments about why people are amazed something costs so much, or how someone else could process it cheaper, or why don't we all just OCR the book as a collaborative effort, etc.)

I believe the smart strategy is to bid your true, highest bid up front. Yes, if two people bid $50 on a $100 project, it would go out at $50, when maybe it could have been less. But that's why we only process bids on Fridays after it crossed the line by Wednesday -- to ensure there's time for enough people to see and bid. 

If everyone bid their high bid the week we put it live, in theory every community priced title that was going to make it would do so in the first week, at the best price. (Nobody is punished for bidding high -- the more people that come in, the lower the price, even if we would theoretically make more at the higher price. Our promise with CPP is that we'll sell it at the LOWEST price that covers costs.)

The bid adjusting waiting game may theoretically protect the player and save a couple bucks, but when everyone does it the project is delayed -- possibly forever -- and everyone loses the game.

I think game theory and pricing are fascinating areas, and we're always looking for new ways to experiment in this area.

Posts 5337
Kevin Becker | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Jan 11 2010 10:32 AM

Bob Pritchett:

The information is embedded in the graph, though without the specifics. The 100% line represents the production costs, and the curve with points reflects the actual revenue generated if we sold the book at that price. So if you see that both $10 and $20 are at exactly 50%, you know that there are exactly twice as many $10 bids as $20.

We could show the actual numbers, or even add the number of bids as a column behind each price, but we didn't want to clutter and confuse things, and we don't want to expose actual units and costs. (It's not that we're secretive, it's that when we reveal actual numbers we tend to get into emotional arguments about why people are amazed something costs so much, or how someone else could process it cheaper, or why don't we all just OCR the book as a collaborative effort, etc.)

I believe the smart strategy is to bid your true, highest bid up front. Yes, if two people bid $50 on a $100 project, it would go out at $50, when maybe it could have been less. But that's why we only process bids on Fridays after it crossed the line by Wednesday -- to ensure there's time for enough people to see and bid. 

If everyone bid their high bid the week we put it live, in theory every community priced title that was going to make it would do so in the first week, at the best price. (Nobody is punished for bidding high -- the more people that come in, the lower the price, even if we would theoretically make more at the higher price. Our promise with CPP is that we'll sell it at the LOWEST price that covers costs.)

The bid adjusting waiting game may theoretically protect the player and save a couple bucks, but when everyone does it the project is delayed -- possibly forever -- and everyone loses the game.

I think game theory and pricing are fascinating areas, and we're always looking for new ways to experiment in this area.

Thanks, as always, for your input. I understand the need for a withholding certain specifics as a business to avoid those emotional arguments about true costs. Publishing is a lot more labor-intensive than most people realize; my wife is a copy editor for an academic publisher so I've had a taste of how many labor-hours it takes to get a project out the door.

I just wish there was a way that Logos could communicate "round up 10 more people at this price and it goes into production. The issue (as I see it) with Community pricing is that it generally involves low-priority books (public domain works with potentially more current offerings available elswhere) with no means to predict timing. It's a low risk way for Logos to build its catalog but it seems to lack that extra something to hold user interest.

Posts 320
John Bowling | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Jan 11 2010 10:42 AM

Kevin Becker:
The issue (as I see it) with Community pricing is that it generally involves low-priority books (public domain works with potentially more current offerings available elswhere) with no means to predict timing.

If this is the case then maybe we could see Thomas Reid's works on Community Pricing.

As for the rest, I stand by my earlier comments. "Lowest" price is simply descriptive of the current bids and in that respect doesn't say much. This becomes obvious when one applies to the example of the two bidders for the $100 item.

 

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Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Mon, Jan 11 2010 2:18 PM

Bob Pritchett:

The information is embedded in the graph, though without the specifics. The 100% line represents the production costs, and the curve with points reflects the actual revenue generated if we sold the book at that price. So if you see that both $10 and $20 are at exactly 50%, you know that there are exactly twice as many $10 bids as $20.

Bob, This is confusing. If there are enough bids at $10 to cover half the production costs and also enough bids at $20 to cover half, what about those people who bid more than 20? Shouldn't they be counted in the number who are willing to pay 20 or 10, even though they bid more? You'd reach production cost sooner if you counted on the fact that all people who bid more than X would be willing to pay X. Suppose your production costs are $1000. If 5 people bid 100, and 5 bid 80, and 5 bid 60, and 5 bid 50, even though none of those prices has enough bids to go ahead with production, you've actually got 20 people willing to pay at least 50, which gives you the needed $1000 to go ahead with it at $50. Is my logic flawed? Does your chart actually show this or does it only show the number of bids at each price?

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 12 2010 1:30 PM

The higher bidders are included.

 

So in the $10 / $20 scenario - let's say there are 50 people who have bid $20 or above - that's $1000 (at the $20 level)

So now let's assume that an additional 50 people have bid only up to $10. In total that is 100 people who will pay $10 (or more) to get the title published. - but because it's only the $10 level it only totals $1000.

In Bob's example he says this was 50% of the cost so in order for that book to rollk over into pre-pub stage there needs to be another 50 people bidding $20 or more - or another 100 people bidding $10 or more.

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Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 12 2010 1:38 PM

PS. That's why you're encouraged to bid your top dollar price you're willing to pay. In the above scenario if you are one of those extra 50 people who bids $20 or more to put the book into production then even if you bid $100 you will still get it for $20. It may be that you sooooo want this resource you would be prepared to pay the $100 but then I don't doubt you'd be very pleased to get it for $20.

Or even less if the book hits 100% and all the people who bid $10 raise their bids so they don't miss out. Those extra $20 bids will actually drive the CP price down to $13.33 because there are now 150 people sharing the production cost of $2000.

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 12 2010 1:39 PM

So enough talk - go bid already :]

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 12 2010 1:43 PM

Kevin Becker:
but it seems to lack that extra something to hold user interest.

How about if your CP bid put you in to a draw to get the title for free Smile

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 5337
Kevin Becker | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 12 2010 3:37 PM

Jeremy White:
How about if your CP bid put you in to a draw to get the title for free Smile

This actually crossed my mind.... I think it's a good idea.

Posts 18703
Rosie Perera | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 13 2010 12:38 AM

Kevin Becker:

Jeremy White:
How about if your CP bid put you in to a draw to get the title for free Smile

This actually crossed my mind.... I think it's a good idea.

+1 Yes Now that would get more people bidding! Great idea!

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 13 2010 9:08 AM

All it would take is an announcement on the blog and some promotion on the boards. I don't doubt that it would mean a lot of people would just bid the minimum so that could have an entry but not expecting that it would actually be enough to purchase the title.But at least they become more aware of what's available and may decide to up their bids for resources they are actually interested in.

But then again, if enough people pledge a little that turns into quite a lot. According to the forum stats there are 14,000 users on these boards and it's a reasonable assumption to think that this constitutes a core group of a much larger user base. But even if all those 14,000 people all made a $2 bid on something that's $28,000. I don't how much Logos needs before they hit the production button (I know it's dependant on the complexity / number of pages, etc of the title) but surely that's enough for one or two pages. And considering what people spend on coffee and other such stuff - 2 bucks is a bargain for a few more resources in your library, even ones that you may not refer to much.

The only other thing lacking in the equation for most people is having a wider range of titles to bid on. Currently there on 7 titles available on that page - I would love to see a lot more listed. I'm sure it's not for lack of suggestions from the board.

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 343

Compendium of Christian Theology - 3 Volumes has been gaining some traction lately!  Approaching the 90% mark.  Check out the resource at http://www.logos.com/communitypricing/details/5664 if you haven't placed a bid yet or want to up it. It's currently at it's peak at $10.

Jason Saling

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