Does anyone know the difference in CP between the messages "Your bid will likely fail" and "Your bid will fail" ? I tend to think that there must be a greater certitude of failure in the latter case, but I'm wondering why and how that is determined.
Does anyone know the difference in CP between the messages "Your bid will likely fail" and "Your bid will fail" ?
[:D] No. Because my bids "will likely succeed." [:D]
I don't remember any of my successful CP bids actually closing at my bid level. They all drop a notch or two.
Does anyone know the difference in CP between the messages "Your bid will likely fail" and "Your bid will fail" ? No. Because my bids "will likely succeed." I don't remember any of my successful CP bids actually closing at my bid level. They all drop a notch or two.
No. Because my bids "will likely succeed."
There are some that I'll only take if I can get them super cheap.
Oh, Come on, George!
Tell me these five typical examples are not "cheap" enough:
Bible Characters (6 vols.)Community Pricing $6.00Pre-Pub $69.95George Müller Collection (12 vols.)Community Pricing $15.00Pre-Pub $79.95The History of the English Baptists (4 vols.) Community Pricing $21.00Sale price $89.95Catena Aurea: Commentary on the Four Gospels (8 vols.)Community Pricing $14.00Sale Price $99.95The Greater Men and Women of the Bible (6 vols.)Community Pricing $9Sale Price $199.95
Tell me these five typical examples are not "cheap" enough: Bible Characters (6 vols.)Community Pricing $6.00Pre-Pub $69.95
Bible Characters (6 vols.)Community Pricing $6.00Pre-Pub $69.95
Not at any price.
George Müller Collection (12 vols.)Community Pricing $15.00Pre-Pub $79.95
Not really interested
Catena Aurea: Commentary on the Four Gospels (8 vols.)Community Pricing $14.00Sale Price $99.95
Got it -- and I bid more than $14.00
The Greater Men and Women of the Bible (6 vols.)Community Pricing $9Sale Price $199.95
Nah !
I think "Your bid will likely fail" is for titles which haven't yet crossed the 100% threshold, and "Your bid will fail" is for ones that have. The greater certitude of failure in the latter case is due to the fact that the offering will be locked in at that price within about a week or less, and unless a lot of people jump on the bandwagon now, or you raise your bid, you'll lose out. However, earlier in the process there's a much more open window.
Still, I think the "likely" price at which a CP will end up going for starts to take shape with a peak pretty early on, and that's usually the amount I (and probably mahy others like me) bid for it, because I want to bid the minimum price that will still make a difference in getting it over the top.
That is what many people do, but to my mind it's illogical. On CP prices I bid that maximum price I'm willing to pay, knowing that I will never pay more than that and will often pay less. If everyone did the same, I expect more CP products would actually move into production.
The only noticable exception to CP prices dropping a notch or two was Barnes which stuck like a rock at the initial bid price.
On CP prices I bid that maximum price I'm willing to pay, knowing that I will never pay more than that and will often pay less. If everyone did the same, I expect more CP products would actually move into production.
Yes, You are correct. More would move into production. but they would move at the $100 price [for an item that sells for $300 in hard copy]. The [say] 1000 people that know it is worth 300 and are willing to pay 100 would all bid the first week [really would need higher numbers - simple numbers used for this example] and it ships - at 100 after one week. But if we would wait a year maybe we could get the 10000 people needed to bid $10 and get it at 10 [after a year]
Or the early peak could show at 100 and the 20000 that were willing to pay only 10 NEVER bid and it never ships because only 900 bid at 100. [and there it sits at 90% forever]
[can I still use your videos even though I dispute your bid strategy? ]
On CP prices I bid that maximum price I'm willing to pay, knowing that I will never pay more than that and will often pay less. If everyone did the same, I expect more CP products would actually move into production. Yes, You are correct. More would move into production. but they would move at the $100 price [for an item that sells for $300 in hard copy]. The [say] 1000 people that know it is worth 300 and are willing to pay 100 would all bid the first week [really would need higher numbers - simple numbers used for this example] and it ships - at 100 after one week. But if we would wait a year maybe we could get the 10000 people needed to bid $10 and get it at 10 [after a year] Or the early peak could show at 100 and the 20000 that were willing to pay only 10 NEVER bid and it never ships because only 900 bid at 100. [and there it sits at 90% forever] [can I still use your videos even though I dispute your bid strategy? ]
I agree with David. Having an early peak that is too high will discourage people from bidding on it who might have been willing to bid if it looked as though it might someday make it over the top at a lower price. Basically the first few people to bid have a lot of influence on the ultimate price of it, because when that peak starts to show up, people start to take interest and the bidding starts pretty much centering around that value. EDIT: There might be some exceptions, but this appears to be the normal pattern most of the time.
Yes, You are correct. More would move into production. but they would move at the $100 price [for an item that sells for $300 in hard copy]. The [say] 1000 people that know it is worth 300 and are willing to pay 100 would all bid the first week [really would need higher numbers - simple numbers used for this example] and it ships - at 100 after one week. But if we would wait a year maybe we could get the 10000 people needed to bid $10 and get it at 10 [after a year] Or the early peak could show at 100 and the 20000 that were willing to pay only 10 NEVER bid and it never ships because only 900 bid at 100. [and there it sits at 90% forever]
I take your point. But equally, experience teaches us that often once a product has reached 100% it attracts several more bids that drive the price down. So it's more complex than either of us admit! [;)] So the general point is that it's important that each of us bids the maximum we think the resource is worth, though it may be better to initially bid lower.
Yes, but only if you put at least $40 on The Complete Works of Thomas Manton!! [:P][A]
[can I still use your videos even though I dispute your bid strategy? ] Yes, but only if you put at least $40 on The Complete Works of Thomas Manton!!
Yes, but only if you put at least $40 on The Complete Works of Thomas Manton!!
DONE!
Mine say "Your bid may fail"...
Also Commentary on the Prophets of the Old Testament a couple of weeks ago. Someone insisted on pushing it over the top just before noon on a Wednesday, so we only got two days to get it down, which wasn't enough. I'm sure we could have done it with another week.
I agree with David. Having an early peak that is too high will discourage people from bidding on it who might have been willing to bid if it looked as though it might someday make it over the top at a lower price.
I agree! Look at the Classic Commentaries on Revelation for $160. Right after it had been moved to CP, this resource was towards the absolute top of the list. Now it just sits there, and drops further and further towards the bottom. I'd say that it's extremely unlikely that there isn't a huge number of people willing to bid at least $10 on this, yet if you look at the $10 level it's clear that pretty much the only bids there are the ones that have bid high and are counted for all the lower levels as well. The number of actual $10 or $20 bids must be minimal. Most people seeing $160 just give up. And, of course, virtually all existing customers that are willing and able to bid $160 have already done so, so it's going to be harder and harder to find new bidders at that level.
Basically the first few people to bid have a lot of influence on the ultimate price of it, because when that peak starts to show up, people start to take interest and the bidding starts pretty much centering around that value. EDIT: There might be some exceptions, but this appears to be the normal pattern most of the time.
All my CPs went over the line at / are still at the exact same amount where the first peak formed. This is not good at all! It shows that "the market" doesn't work properly.
So the general point is that it's important that each of us bids the maximum we think the resource is worth, though it may be better to initially bid lower.
I'd say the general rules are:
Does anyone know the difference in CP between the messages "Your bid will likely fail" and "Your bid will fail" ? Mine say "Your bid may fail"...
So do most of mine when I bid below the SRP (most of the time). I only have one that says it will fail which struck me as rather strange.
Mostly good advice. I think the Revelation bundle only has a few items that are worthwhile which may be the problem. I can only think of Bousset and Moses Stuart offhand though there may be more that slip my mind -- your memory starts playing tricks on you when you approach 39. [:)]
I agree. There is no reason that people only willing to pay $10 can't bid $10. The major advantage of bidding your maximum is that you don't need to watch the item. You can use the time to use Logos4 rather than logos.com - sounds like a good trade off to me.
On CP prices I bid that maximum price I'm willing to pay, knowing that I will never pay more than that and will often pay less. If everyone did the same, I expect more CP products would actually move into production. I agree. There is no reason that people only willing to pay $10 can't bid $10. The major advantage of bidding your maximum is that you don't need to watch the item. You can use the time to use Logos4 rather than logos.com - sounds like a good trade off to me.
That assumes that you REALLY ARE WILLING to pay the $10.00. If not, bid lower. There is no need to watch the item since, should it succeed and your bid is lower, you will be notified that you must change your bid if you decide you would like the resource at the successful price (and even then it may come down to what you had bid).
I agree with David. Having an early peak that is too high will discourage people from bidding on it who might have been willing to bid if it looked as though it might someday make it over the top at a lower price. I agree! Look at the Classic Commentaries on Revelation for $160. Right after it had been moved to CP, this resource was towards the absolute top of the list. Now it just sits there, and drops further and further towards the bottom. I'd say that it's extremely unlikely that there isn't a huge number of people willing to bid at least $10 on this, yet if you look at the $10 level it's clear that pretty much the only bids there are the ones that have bid high and are counted for all the lower levels as well. The number of actual $10 or $20 bids must be minimal. Most people seeing $160 just give up. And, of course, virtually all existing customers that are willing and able to bid $160 have already done so, so it's going to be harder and harder to find new bidders at that level.
This might be a case where it would be better if everyone who has bid $160 or more lowers their bid to say $80, it might help this one get into production faster. It might very well be that more than twice as many people would be willing to buy this at $80 than would be willing to buy it at $160, in which case the peak will be higher at 80, and it would encourage more people to bid on it who wouldn't have considered it otherwise.
Yes, but my original position stands. If everyone who was willing to pay at least $80 went ahead and bid what they were willing to pay there wouldn't be a problem. The issue you describe would only occur if there are people who are willing to pay $80 but don't bid $80 because the highest point on the graph is above that price.
OK, I will be back in at $80 soon after I hit the 'post' thing [Please stop recommending books - my budget is blown ]
