The Moving Target? - Production Cost
Is it just me, or does the production cost of the Classic Commentaries and Studies on Revelation move with the $50 bid. I think just as the production cost got cut to make the $50 bid win, I think it is going up with the $50 bid. When the production cost first changed both the $50 point and the $160 point were over the line. Now the $160 point is well below the production cost, and I don't see why people would lower their bid.
I think Logos wanted to see this in production and decided to make $50 the winning bid in CP even though it won't cover their projected costs. Unless the $40 point actually goes higher than $50 point, I don't see $40 crossing the line. If the production cost line stayed where it was the $40 point would now be over the line too.
I'm not blaming Logos or anything. I think they are probably taking a loss on this one in CP. Just something to think about if you are 'in' for under $50.
Comments
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I suppose this is POSSIBLE, but I had to guess, Logos moved the finish line because they did a new estimate of production costs and found they could do it cheaper. I don't know any details, but have seen things like this for a few other pre-pubs that had been sitting out there for a while.
This could happen if they have been developing tools for building books that make the process more efficient or if they found that some books were not as "bad" as they had thought.
I see no reason for them to take a lose on something like this.
The Gospel is not ... a "new law," on the contrary, ... a "new life." - William Julius Mann
L8 Anglican, Lutheran and Orthodox Silver, Reformed Starter, Academic Essentials
L7 Lutheran Gold, Anglican Bronze
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Johann said:
Is it just me, or does the production cost of the Classic Commentaries and Studies on Revelation move with the $50 bid. I think just as the production cost got cut to make the $50 bid win, I think it is going up with the $50 bid. When the production cost first changed both the $50 point and the $160 point were over the line. Now the $160 point is well below the production cost, and I don't see why people would lower their bid.
I think Logos wanted to see this in production and decided to make $50 the winning bid in CP even though it won't cover their projected costs. Unless the $40 point actually goes higher than $50 point, I don't see $40 crossing the line. If the production cost line stayed where it was the $40 point would now be over the line too.
I'm not blaming Logos or anything. I think they are probably taking a loss on this one in CP. Just something to think about if you are 'in' for under $50.
I do believe Logos did change how much they thought that this set would cost them, and they made that change. This put the $50 and $160 bids over the 100% line. This change did not affect the curve of the chart; it just moved it up. Now that it is set to go into production this Friday, it is gathering new votes. This would not affect the $160 bids.
The only thing that would cause the $160 bids to drop is that people are changing their vote, and moving their vote to $50. It is very common. As a matter of fact, some said that they just changed their vote from $160 to $50 on another thread.
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Johann said:
Now the $160 point is well below the production cost, and I don't see why people would lower their bid.
There is nothing unique with this. It happens every time that some people lower their bids to the going one. It makes no difference, but they do it anyway. Maybe they don't understand the system.
Johann said:Is it just me, or does the production cost of the Classic Commentaries and Studies on Revelation move with the $50 bid. (...) If the production cost line stayed where it was the $40 point would now be over the line too.
I don't know how much you've followed the process, but this is one very special CP. Lots of people have bid $50 just to help getting the peak down, although they had no intention of actually paying that. The idea was that once the peak was firmly established at $50, they would lower or remove their bids, well before it actually crossed the line. But then it suddenly went over the top without warning, so now they have to do it after it's crossed instead. That's why the curve now appears to behave in ways it 'shouldn't'. The effect of new bidders at $50 or $40 is counteracted by other bidders who move their bids down to where they originally had them (and probably also by some bidders who placed their bids 1.5 years ago and now find they're no longer interested, or no longer have the means). So while the list of $50 bidders probably looks somewhat different to what it looked like a week ago, the number of them may not have changed as much as you'd think.
Mac Pro (late 2013) OS 12.6.2
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Johann said:
Is it just me, or does the production cost of the Classic Commentaries and Studies on Revelation move with the $50 bid. I think just as the production cost got cut to make the $50 bid win, I think it is going up with the $50 bid. When the production cost first changed both the $50 point and the $160 point were over the line.
Concur with observation. Shortly before a closing date was established for Classic Commentaries and Studies on Revelation the progress was a bit under 60 % so suspect many more $ 50 bids are needed to cover 100 % of estimated production cost (guessing current $ 50 bid covers ~ 75 % of original estimate).
Johann said:I think Logos wanted to see this in production and decided to make $50 the winning bid in CP even though it won't cover their projected costs. Unless the $40 point actually goes higher than $50 point, I don't see $40 crossing the line. If the production cost line stayed where it was the $40 point would now be over the line too.
If a lot more new $ 50 bids are placed (to cover 100 % of original estimate), then would anticipate dot rising above 100 % line (and closer to $ 40 crossing).
Thankful for Logos choosing to close this CP resource. At this point, if this set has interesting volume(s), recommend bidding $ 50.
Keep Smiling [:)]
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Very true. I was one of them. This series is not worth $50 in my eyes. I was first in at $30. I moved my bid to $50 so that it could get a peek there. Once it crossed the line, I moved my bid down to $40. I have not, and I will not pay more than $1.50 per volume in the Classic Commentaries series Logos is producing. The material found in these old commentaries is not worth it (IMHO). I would rather pay $50 for a book that I know that I would use than $50 for 27 books that I will not use.fgh said:I don't know how much you've followed the process, but this is one very special CP. Lots of people have bid $50 just to help getting the peak down, although they had no intention of actually paying that. The idea was that once the peak was firmly established at $50, they would lower or remove their bids
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If a lot more new $ 50 bids are placed (to cover 100 % of original estimate), then would anticipate dot rising above 100 % line (and closer to $ 40 crossing).
Yeah, I would too. But I don't think there will be that many new $50 bids. But hopefully ...
tom collinge said:I have not, and I will not pay more than $1.50 per volume in the Classic Commentaries series Logos is producing. The material found in these old commentaries is not worth it (IMHO). I would rather pay $50 for a book that I know that I would use than $50 for 27 books that I will not use.
I also have been thinking about what I call "Gambling on Classic Commentaries". You willing to put $1.50 toward a book you don't know. And while I don't have a hard dollar amount in mind, I think if there are one or two good books in a collection that I end up really using, it would be well worth $20-40 (My winning bids so far on Classic Commentaries in CP). While I am looking forward to a good base for the history of interpretation in these sets, I'm hoping each one has a real gem or two. Of course the more volumes in the collection the more chances one will be a gem. I know some I won't get my $1.50(ish) out of, but others will make up for it.
Maybe if people posted (I've seen a few posts for various collections) which specific titles they are looking forward to having in this collection, maybe more bidders would be more confident about bidding at least $50.
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Johann ... I can 'guarantee' you Logos won't be taking a loss on this. Just sitting back and watching, they clearly are putting together a 'classic commentary set' for the whole Bible ... use it for filler in some of the packages ... re-package by author ... re-package by period ... the possibilities are endless. But best of all, they'll sell individual books are $20-30 each and all pure profit, no royalties, etc. They did that for ICC too.
Production costs didn't go down; Logos got tired of waiting.
"If myth is ideology in narrative form, then scholarship is myth with footnotes." B. Lincolm 1999.
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Johann said:
If a lot more new $ 50 bids are placed (to cover 100 % of original estimate), then would anticipate dot rising above 100 % line (and closer to $ 40 crossing).
Yeah, I would too. But I don't think there will be that many new $50 bids. But hopefully ...
tom collinge said:I have not, and I will not pay more than $1.50 per volume in the Classic Commentaries series Logos is producing. The material found in these old commentaries is not worth it (IMHO). I would rather pay $50 for a book that I know that I would use than $50 for 27 books that I will not use.
I also have been thinking about what I call "Gambling on Classic Commentaries". You willing to put $1.50 toward a book you don't know. And while I don't have a hard dollar amount in mind, I think if there are one or two good books in a collection that I end up really using, it would be well worth $20-40 (My winning bids so far on Classic Commentaries in CP). While I am looking forward to a good base for the history of interpretation in these sets, I'm hoping each one has a real gem or two. Of course the more volumes in the collection the more chances one will be a gem. I know some I won't get my $1.50(ish) out of, but others will make up for it.
Maybe if people posted (I've seen a few posts for various collections) which specific titles they are looking forward to having in this collection, maybe more bidders would be more confident about bidding at least $50.
The surveys of historical interpretations found in these works never go out of date. You can check some posts on it here and here.
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DMB said:
Johann ... I can 'guarantee' you Logos won't be taking a loss on this. Just sitting back and watching, they clearly are putting together a 'classic commentary set' for the whole Bible ... use it for filler in some of the packages ... re-package by author ... re-package by period ... the possibilities are endless. But best of all, they'll sell individual books are $20-30 each and all pure profit, no royalties, etc. They did that for ICC too.
Production costs didn't go down; Logos got tired of waiting.
That's what I think too - they don't want these sets sitting around. So was ICC community pricing? I would love the NT set but the prices are too high.
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ICC was before my time. But I always kind of tighten my jaws when I hear people thinking to buy ICC at Logos prices. But ICC is indeed good.
That said, I liked Westcott and some other oldies and happily paid 'sale price'. I think these 'classics' are like a future investment for Logos, relative to an unstable publishing world where 'Amazons' can potentially put the profit out quickly.
Plus, this is just my opinion (as is the above); I think the late 1800s / early 1900s were far more disciplined and far more transparent (scholarly writing) than today. I subscribe to JBL just to watch the publish/perish process.
"If myth is ideology in narrative form, then scholarship is myth with footnotes." B. Lincolm 1999.
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DMB said:
Plus, this is just my opinion (as is the above); I think the late 1800s / early 1900s were far more disciplined and far more transparent (scholarly writing) than today.
I agree; they seemed more concerned with real historical questions whereas later scholars took a descent into how far they could push the fantasy world of form criticsm (imho); and today's scholars seem to follow the latest fashion in literary approaches (not that it's all bad - I like Witherington's commentaries, it just isn't the solid historical study of the past). It's not Lightfoot, Westcott, Edmundson et al.
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DMB said:
Johann ... I can 'guarantee' you Logos won't be taking a loss on this.
Ha ha. Ok. I didn't say it as I meant it. I misspoke. I too am SURE they will cover their costs in the long run by including them in new packages or even selling the individual titles (like the Genesis collection), and that is why it would be a good idea for them to get a set like this into production even though what they get ONLY from CP might not cover the costs (still just my theory).
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My 'theory,' or perhaps just suspicion, is that the excess funds from the successful CPs has been redirected. For example, the Church Pulpit collection sold at $35, but was nearly at $30 - so there was extra money there that could have been used to help other collections.
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tom collinge said:
Very true. I was one of them. This series is not worth $50 in my eyes. I was first in at $30. I moved my bid to $50 so that it could get a peek there. Once it crossed the line, I moved my bid down to $40. I have not, and I will not pay more than $1.50 per volume in the Classic Commentaries series Logos is producing. The material found in these old commentaries is not worth it (IMHO). I would rather pay $50 for a book that I know that I would use than $50 for 27 books that I will not use.fgh said:I don't know how much you've followed the process, but this is one very special CP. Lots of people have bid $50 just to help getting the peak down, although they had no intention of actually paying that. The idea was that once the peak was firmly established at $50, they would lower or remove their bids
Very dishonest of you. Bid what you would pay. If you are not interested in a resource why bid at all? Trying to "game" the system is counter-productive. Logos did the bidders a great favor on this one. Don't count on it in the future. If thy lose money on this one because of fraudulent bidding the whole concept of CP could be abandoned.
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After closing, wonder how long until this set ships ?
Also wondering if Logos is gauging amount of community bidding increase with $ 50 closing; anticipating a price hike after closing.
If 2 volumes in http://www.logos.com/product/8522/classic-commentaries-and-studies-on-revelation are interesting (e.g. Georg Heinrich Ewald, F. J. A. Hort), then bidding $ 50 is similar to purchasing two volumes at $ 25 each plus receiving 25 freebies (albeit several of the "freebies" look interesting).
Keep Smiling [:)]
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Robert G. Mettler said:
Very dishonest of you. Bid what you would pay. If you are not interested in a resource why bid at all? Trying to "game" the system is counter-productive. Logos did the bidders a great favor on this one. Don't count on it in the future. If thy lose money on this one because of fraudulent bidding the whole concept of CP could be abandoned.
No one is 'gaming' anything - people weren't bidding what they were willing to pay because they are human and they see the higher price and don't think it will ever come down and so they don't bid. It's called human psychology. No system is flawless. We aren't graphs and charts: we are humans. The set became stagnated because very few new bidders were willing to pay such a high price, and the potential $50 bidders were not bidding. Tom and others were trying to help this along, and were planning on lowering their bid AFTER the set came out of its stagnation, not after bidding closed as you imply, in order to get this to a point where people would be willing to bid what they were willing to pay, instead of not bidding at all.
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We are constantly making our processes better and more efficient and trying to bring costs down. The only reason the line moved was because we were able to estimate a lower production cost. The price is ultimately set by everyone who bids.
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Robert G. Mettler said:
dishonest ... fraudulent
Before you start throwing around accusations like these you should make sure you understand what you're commenting on -- which clearly you do not!
Mac Pro (late 2013) OS 12.6.2
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Kent Hendricks said:
We are constantly making our processes better and more efficient and trying to bring costs down. The only reason the line moved was because we were able to estimate a lower production cost. The price is ultimately set by everyone who bids.
All I can say is I was very happy to see this go over the top - and at a price I can afford!
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Dean053 said:
So was ICC community pricing?
The ICC was not on community pricing. I bought it on prepub.
george
gfsomselיְמֵי־שְׁנוֹתֵינוּ בָהֶם שִׁבְעִים שָׁנָה וְאִם בִּגְבוּרֹת שְׁמוֹנִים שָׁנָה וְרָהְבָּם עָמָל וָאָוֶן
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