Community Pricing Forecast Report - brought to you by the letter J

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Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Posted: Tue, Jan 19 2010 1:49 PM

As a little lunch time project I've prepared the "Community Pricing Forecast Report" - kind of like the weather report but not really. WARNING - this is quite a long post.

Some upfront disclaimers - the information provided is my best guestimate made from available information provided by the graphs on the community pricing page. Two key pieces of information can NOT be extrapolated from these graphs :

1.       The target $ total Logos is trying to reach

2.       The actual number of bidders

Never the less the math works regardless of whether the amount required is $1000 or $100,000. Likewise, for this forecast to be valid it is immaterial how many actual bidders there are because I am working totally on percentages.

The main assumption in these reports is that anyone who has already bid is at least a little bit interested in the title. What this report will reveal is the lowest amount that everyone that ALREADY has bid would need to click on to get the title into production.

 So in other words, if you have already bid higher the amount in this forecast you don't need to do anything - however, if you're currently bidding lower and you really would like to see it go into production then you may want to consider raising your bid.

This forecast does not take into account any new bidders that may come in. Because I've already done the hard work for this first one, my plan is to redo again in a month to see how different titles have or haven't progressed.

So here it is :

Compendium of Christian Theology -

the most recently added title to the CP page.  $20 seems to be the resistance point where there is a significant drop off in interest. Based on current percentages everyone would need to bid a minimum of $24 to push this book into pre-pub.

George Muller Collection -

the current sweet spot is around $18 with a significant drop off at the $30 mark.  If everyone bid a minimum of $24 then that would enough to put this to 100%. That is $2 per book in that collection. The forecast graph for this title is a little bit more complex because it shows that it would only take 81% of those under bidders to increase their bid to $24 to reach the target.

The Atonement : In Its Relationship To The Covenant......  -

this title is starting to get fairly close to the 100% target with there being strong interest at $7 and then a bid drop off after $10. It doesn't take a computer spreadsheet to see that if all under bidders increased their bid to $7 then Logos would hit the go button. Alternatively, if everyone who bid $5, $6 or $7 increased that bid to $8 then that would also push the graph over the limit.

Catena Aurea -

currently no point of the graph goes above 40%. If this represents the total number of users interested in this book then those bidders need to increase their bid to $36 if they would like this book in their Logos library.

Essays In Biblical Greek -

is currently getting as high as around 70% of production cost. If 95% or more of current interested users bid $8 or more then that would achieve the target cost. Alternatively, if people who bid $5 - $8 raised their bid to $9 then this would also provide enough interest to get production going.

The New Testament For English Readers -

is a hairline away from reaching the production line at the $16 level. This produces some interest forecast results. Any one of the following scenarios would push the title into production :

-          58% or more of current under bidders raise their bid to $14 or more

-          All users who bid $12 or $14 raise their bid to $16 or more

-          All users who bid $16 raise their bid to $18 or more

Barnes Notes -

the granddaddy of the CP page; according to some reports has received the most bids of any CP title. Unfortunately, due to the high cost of converting this type of resource into Logos format ,it only just peeks over the 40% mark at the $30 interest level. In other words - it's going to take more than double the number of bids at $30 to put this into production. Given that this title has been on CP for many months it seems unlikely that this will happen.  Based on current levels all existing bidders would need to raise their bid to a minimum of $60 to get the graph to 100%. While that is double the amount of the most popular bid currently - it is still less than the prices quoted in the introductory CP blurb to purchase this resource in a competing format or hard cover book form ($90 and $170 respectively)

 

So that's this month's report . Let, the post game analysis begin.

 

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Tue, Jan 19 2010 4:10 PM

I realized that I did not include a link to the CP page - http://www.logos.com/communitypricing- just in case you have no idea what this whole post was referring to.

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 1145
William | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 10:45 AM

Jeremy White:
So that's this month's report . Let, the post game analysis begin.

I have gone through the list and upped the bid where necessary and just left it alone when I was above the price your looking at.  The only work I did not budge on is Barnes...

I would like to hear more about why I should have this in my library.

William

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 12:18 PM

Thanks for the feedback. I didn't really state it in the original post but you've got the right attitude in that, regardless of what my mathematical formula says, ultimately you want to just bid how much YOU are prepared to pay for that particular resource - the idea being that there is a direct correlation between it's value to you and the amount you're prepared to pay.

On the Barnes Notes there are a number of previous threads where people have championed it (as well as most of the other titles on the CP page) - here's the most recent one that I am aware of.

http://community.logos.com/forums/p/208/1801.aspx#1801

Personally my agenda is to see a much greater of variety of resources available on the Logos platform and CP is one way that this can happen at minimal cost. Someone else with a more refined sense of the value of certain titles and why someone might consider  bidding on them will have to pipe up at this point. I know there are others that are trying to champion certain titles.

Just to be clear, there are two ways that a CP title can reach that magic mark of 100% - one is for the total number of users bidding to increase - or two, for the existing individuals who have already expressed their interest to increase the amount they are bidding. My report speaks to that second strategy but cannot make any comment on the first. However, in a months time when I redo my calculations I will be able to tell how much (on a percentage basis) extra interest a particular title has attracted.

To put it another way, existing bidders raising their bids potentially brings a title closer to production time, additional bidders does this also, but also increases the potential for the title to be available for less cost because it can be shared over a greater number of initial buyers.

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 261
Ralph A. Abernethy III | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 12:37 PM

Thanks, Jeremy, for a well-explained synopsis of how Community Pricing works.  I'm going to examine the Community Prices range and see if there's anything else I want to bid on.  We're all in this together.

Posts 569
J. Morris | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 1:08 PM

Thanks for the work done on this Jeremy, you are appreciated!

Posts 221
Jeremy White | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 2:30 PM

Links to recent threads that promote or discuss the merits of some of the other titles (other than Barnes Notes which has already been mentioned) being offered through Community Pricing :

 

Compendium of Christian Theology

http://community.logos.com/forums/t/8777.aspx?PageIndex=1

 

George Müller Collection (12 Vols.)

http://community.logos.com/forums/t/7743.aspx?PageIndex=1

 

The Atonement: In Its Relationship to the Covenant, the Priesthood, the Intercession of Our Lord

Couldn't find anything substantive. Anyone care to tell us what makes this a good resource to have?

 

Catena Aurea - Commentary on the Four Gospels

http://community.logos.com/forums/p/9062/72487.aspx#72487

 

Essays In Biblical Greek (Edwin Hatch)

Couldn't find anything.


New Testament for English Readers

http://community.logos.com/forums/t/9007.aspx?PageIndex=1

 

 

A song I wrote and recorded : He Who Sits Upon The Throne

Posts 767
Alan Charles Gielczyk | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 3:39 PM

Jeremy,

You are my new hero, I hope your work results in more CP's I raised all my bids when necessary. Great job!!!

Posts 5337
Kevin Becker | Forum Activity | Replied: Wed, Jan 20 2010 3:52 PM

Jeremy,

Thank you. I've gone back to CP and adjusted a some bids, even added a few Smile. This kind of information (extrapolated from the graphs for those of us who didn't have time to figure it out) is what I think Community Pricing needs to help make it more popular. Thanks again for your efforts!

Posts 10587
Forum MVP
Jack Caviness | Forum Activity | Replied: Thu, Jan 21 2010 11:40 AM

Jeremy White:
As a little lunch time project I've prepared the "Community Pricing Forecast Report" - kind of like the weather report but not really. WARNING - this is quite a long post.

Thank you for this. Most of my bids were already at or above your recommendations, but I did raise a couple of them.

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