As a little lunch time project I've prepared the "Community
Pricing Forecast Report" - kind of like the weather report but not really.
WARNING - this is quite a long post.
Some upfront disclaimers - the information provided is my
best guestimate made from available information provided by the graphs on the
community pricing page. Two key pieces of information can NOT be extrapolated
from these graphs :
1.
The target $ total Logos is trying to reach
2.
The actual number of bidders
Never the less the math works regardless of whether the amount
required is $1000 or $100,000. Likewise, for this forecast to be valid it is
immaterial how many actual bidders there are because I am working totally on
percentages.
The main assumption in these reports is that anyone who has
already bid is at least a little bit interested in the title. What this report
will reveal is the lowest amount that everyone that ALREADY has bid would need
to click on to get the title into production.
So in other words, if
you have already bid higher the amount in this forecast you don't need to do
anything - however, if you're currently bidding lower and you really would like
to see it go into production then you may want to consider raising your bid.
This forecast does not take into account any new bidders
that may come in. Because I've already done the hard work for this first one,
my plan is to redo again in a month to see how different titles have or haven't
progressed.
So here it is :
Compendium of Christian Theology -
the most recently added
title to the CP page. $20 seems to be
the resistance point where there is a significant drop off in interest. Based on
current percentages everyone would need to bid a minimum of $24 to push this
book into pre-pub.
George Muller Collection -
the current sweet spot is around $18
with a significant drop off at the $30 mark.
If everyone bid a minimum of $24 then that would enough to put this to
100%. That is $2 per book in that collection. The forecast graph for this title
is a little bit more complex because it shows that it would only take 81% of
those under bidders to increase their bid to $24 to reach the target.
The Atonement : In Its Relationship To The Covenant...... -
this title is starting to get fairly close
to the 100% target with there being strong interest at $7 and then a bid drop
off after $10. It doesn't take a computer spreadsheet to see that if all under
bidders increased their bid to $7 then Logos would hit the go button.
Alternatively, if everyone who bid $5, $6 or $7 increased that bid to $8 then
that would also push the graph over the limit.
Catena Aurea -
currently no point of the graph goes above
40%. If this represents the total number of users interested in this book then
those bidders need to increase their bid to $36 if they would like this book in
their Logos library.
Essays In Biblical Greek -
is currently getting as high as
around 70% of production cost. If 95% or more of current interested users bid $8
or more then that would achieve the target cost. Alternatively, if people who
bid $5 - $8 raised their bid to $9 then this would also provide enough interest
to get production going.
The New Testament For English Readers -
is a hairline away
from reaching the production line at the $16 level. This produces some interest
forecast results. Any one of the following scenarios would push the title into
production :
-
58% or more of current under bidders raise their
bid to $14 or more
-
All users who bid $12 or $14 raise their bid to
$16 or more
-
All users who bid $16 raise their bid to $18 or
more
Barnes Notes -
the granddaddy of the CP page; according to
some reports has received the most bids of any CP title. Unfortunately, due to
the high cost of converting this type of resource into Logos format ,it only
just peeks over the 40% mark at the $30 interest level. In other words - it's
going to take more than double the number of bids at $30 to put this into
production. Given that this title has been on CP for many months it seems
unlikely that this will happen. Based on
current levels all existing bidders would need to raise their bid to a minimum
of $60 to get the graph to 100%. While that is double the amount of the most
popular bid currently - it is still less than the prices quoted in the
introductory CP blurb to purchase this resource in a competing format or hard
cover book form ($90 and $170 respectively)
So that's this month's report . Let, the post game analysis begin.
