DEAL: "Luther's Christmas Tree" for $1

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783167#Comment_783167

Great explanation of how Community Pricing works. It seems that many don't fully understand how it works so a reminder is appropriate.

Based on how quickly interest developed in this I totally think that $1 is achievable by Friday. This is the type of resource that people like and, at such a great price, it is a no-brainer. If you've never participated in Community Pricing this is the perfect opportunity.

GaoLu

Good Grief! Would ya just look at that! Back when it started out at something like $14 I gave it a disgruntled sniff, drooled, looked for it elsewhere, thought about a PB, then bit my lip and bid anyway. And now look at it! Yes!

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783191#Comment_783191

It is up to about 70%.

From the previous thread:

Community Pricing is driven by the number of bids.

How does the raw number of bids affect the price? I've watched a video and read a couple articles, including "How Community Pricing Works" (which btw, has a broken link to "A Bidding Strategy for Community Pricing"), and one even says:

[quote]"The book will go into production whether one person bids $10,000 or whether 10,000 people bid $1. The math is the same."

But it doesn't say what that math is. Maybe it doesn't matter to Logos, but wouldn't the "one person" example result in that "winner" paying 10K$ for the book (not really a "win")? In Alabama24's example, above, if nobody bid $1, would the price ever possibly become $1? Why wouldn't it take a bunch of people bidding $1 to lower the price below $2?

Could someone explain the math (beyond just giving several scenarios)? It would be even better if it was clearly explained outside the forums.

Thanks!

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783412#Comment_783412

[quote]"The book will go into production whether one person bids $10,000 or whether 10,000 people bid $1. The math is the same."

But it doesn't say what that math is.

I think it does say. The math is: number of bids at a price point multiplied by that price is the revenue for Faithlife.

That revenue needs to cover (= be at least as high as) the cost to Faithlife. In the example, $10,000

In Alabama24's example, above, if nobody bid $1, would the price ever possibly become $1? Why wouldn't it take a bunch of people bidding $1 to lower the price below $2?

The point is that people bidding express the amount they are willing to pay at most - they are as well willing to pay less. Thus a bid for a certain price point is at the same time a bid for all lowert price points as well. Assume the "Luther's Christm,as Tree" resource was the one in the example and cost $10,000 to produce. If 5,000 people say, they pay $2, it will go into production. These same people would be happy to pay $1 instead of $2 - so at the price point $1, the demand curve would show 50% if no one bid $1.

Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783412#Comment_783412

Could someone explain the math (beyond just giving several scenarios)?

Faithlife doesn't give the specific math for a specific resource. They internally calculate what the costs would be to cover the expense of putting a resource into production. Based on that they determine what the bidding increments they will offer with the hope that people will place bids. And then they hope enough people will bid to cover the costs. This is a bit of a guessing game and there is a danger of bidding stalling out with insufficient bidders.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783424#Comment_783424

Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs. I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783321#Comment_783321

Since yesterday, the $1 bids have jumped from 60% to 80%. I think it has a good chance of being final at $1. 1, or even 2 dollars is not much. That probably can be found in pennies around the house somewhere. [:)]

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783429#Comment_783429

Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs. I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

I have no idea what you are asking. Again, a bid of $2 is ALSO a bid of $1.

For $1 to be successful, then $2 has to be equal or greater than 200%. Using simple math: If the production cost is $100, you would need 50 people to bid $2 to be successful (50x$2=$100). 100% of $100 @ $2 bids = 50. Likewise, you would need 200% of the number of successful $2 bids to = $100 (100 is 200% of 50).

If you are asking "what is the actual cost of production," you aren't likely to get an answer.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783429#Comment_783429

Clearly, if 10,000 people bid $2, it would go for $1 since the aggregate number of bids at a certain point or higher now is equal to the production cost.

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs. I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

I'm still trying to figure out what you are saying and I think perhaps I do now. Faithlife often adjusts the lowest bid to account for lots of bidders. In the example about Faithlife would probably lower the lowest bidding until from $2 to $1. In the end everyone would pay $1 and Faithlife would cover their costs of initial production.

David J. Wilson

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783452#Comment_783452

Math is extraordinarily difficult to understand as we work with many different concepts and each of us is familiar with only a few of them and easily confused by most of what is outside our immediate experience.

Take bidding for example; most often associated with auctions in which the highest bid across the finish line takes the prize and in most cases there is only one prize. Some sales happen and once across the finish line the salesman admits he has not one but ten and asks if anyone else would like one at the final price..... That is NOT how Community Pricing works.

Explaining math to a layman is NOT an easy task either: take the standard Newfoundland math problem: what is one plus one plus another one ?

Obviously it depends. In some cases 1+1+1 =0
If the first one is a hungry seagull and the other two are puffins then the answer is no hungry seagull and no puffins, zero: simple.

So if you think it is simple explaining to a layman why doubling the number of $2 bids after a title crosses the line at $2 does not mean 100% profit to Faithlife then try explaining it to a non layman.

The answer is of course 2 * 2 = 1, double the number of bids after it crosses the line at $2 and all the bidders get it for $1

Now tell me again why people just cannot seem to understand why 2*2 =1

(Math explanation provided solely to keep this post at the top of the list so that everyone viewing the forums gets to see it and bid at least $1 so everyone gets it for a $1 We still need 30% MORE bidders before it closes, but still a good chance as most people do not bid until Thursday evening or Friday morning. Don't get me started on probabilities and proving why I told Bruce a while back in the other thread that I think this one would go for $1).

Bradley Grainger (Logos)

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783429#Comment_783429

That is exactly what I feel isn't clear from Faithlife's various official examples. Based on those, with the extreme example of 10,000 people bidding $2, then the $2 bids in the curve would be those exceeding 100%, the final price could be $2, and Faithlife could happily score a 10K$ profit on the production costs. I think that is what Faithlife could official clarify to help people better understand.

If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).

As per https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about, "With Community Pricing, you pay the lowest price that covers production costs." That means Faithlife chooses the lowest price that covers costs, even if that produces less revenue and profit for us. In this (contrived) example that would mean the winning bid would be $1.

Even if 10,000 people bid $10 for this title, we would still charge each bidder only $1 because it's the lowest cost for you.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783468#Comment_783468

If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).…Even if 10,000 people bid $10 for this title, we would still charge each bidder only $1 because it's the lowest cost for you.

Thank you, Bradley: that's clear! All the official examples that I'd previously seen only illustrated how you get to exactly 100%, not how additional bids help lower the price further.

Suggestions for clarifying this on Logos.com:

Could something like your >100% example be added to https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about? Although I have now found the "If you like working with numbers and want all the details, click here." on that page and I do like working with numbers, your illustration clarifies the >100% scenario while still keeping it relatively simple. : )
Could a link to https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/about be provided at https://www.logos.com/communitypricing/? The communitypricing page is on the Logos.com store menu, and earlier I found that page via a search engine, but I hadn't found communitypricing/about.

Thanks again! : )

Robert M. Warren

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783481#Comment_783481

Pondering all this is too much like work.

Mark

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783468#Comment_783468

If the resource cost $10,000 and 10,000 bid $2, then the bid graph would show 100% at the $1 price point (10,000 x $1 = $10,000 = 100%) and 200% at the $2 price point (10,000 x $2 = $20,000 = 200%).

Yes, but if 5000 people bid $2, then it will close at $2. If in the last week or two a bidder encourages people to bid lower, it can drive up the percentage of people who bid at the lower price and cause more to come on board, thus possibly successfully lowering the bid before closing.

The con of this strategy is that one might forget to change his bid back to the higher bid (if the lower bid was unsuccessful) the day before closing, and thus lose out on a great price.

If bidders remain at $2 and new bidders bid at $1, they may drive the price down to $1. But if they do not have enough new bidders, they will not get the resource at community pricing.

On this resource, if every $2 bidder changed their bid to $1, then it would not close on Friday,nor ever, until there were enough bidders. But the smaller price could cause more to bid. I am not changing my bid from $2 to $1 on this resource. But I have and would on other resources if it meant a potential significant drop in price.

Okay...time for others to blast my logic...

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783488#Comment_783488

Okay...time for others to blast my logic...

Sure. I'll take the challenge. [:P]

If in the last week or two a bidder encourages people to bid lower, it can drive up the percentage of people who bid at the lower price and cause more to come on board, thus possibly successfully lowering the bid before closing.

There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1. If the current winning bid is $2 (100%) and a user moves his bid from $2 to $1, If the $1 price point had 70% before the bid was switched, guess how much it will have after the switch to the lower price point? Go ahead, guess.

The answer is 70%. Not 70.1% Not 70.01%. It will be 70% because, as I have said over and over, a bid of $2 is also a bid of $1. What a bid of $1 is NOT is a bid of $2, so if it closes @ $2, you will lose out.

Mark

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783491#Comment_783491

so if it closes @ $2, you will lose out.

Yes, that is what I said.

There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1

Yes, a bid for $2 is also a bid for $1. I agree. But I disagree that there is never a reason to do so. Look back at what I wrote. I know there are those on the forum who follow my logic.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783499#Comment_783499

I disagree that there is never a reason to do so. Look back at what I wrote. I know there are those on the forum who follow my logic.

I am not understanding your logic. How would a user moving their bid from $2 to $1 encourage anyone to bid $1? As I said, the percentage will remain the same!

Bradley Grainger (Logos)

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783491#Comment_783491

There is NEVER, NEVER, NEVER a reason to do so. A bid for $2 is ALSO a bid for $1. If the current winning bid is $2 (100%) and a user moves his bid from $2 to $1, If the $1 price point had 70% before the bid was switched, guess how much it will have after the switch to the lower price point? Go ahead, guess.

The answer is 70%. Not 70.1% Not 70.01%. It will be 70%

Yes, but the $2 price point might drop from 100% to 99.9%, because you lowered your bid from $2 to $1. If it does (a big if), then the CP title might not close for another week, which would allow more users to bid (at $1 or higher) which might eventually raise the $1 price point from 70% to 70.1% to 100%.

OTOH, it's more like that the $2 price point drops from, say, 110% to 109.9% (if you lower your bid) so you have to get on the forums and convince hundreds of others to lower their bids simultaneously. And all that does is (potentially) stop the title crossing at $2. (And maybe it still does and now you miss out.) It doesn't help it cross at $1 at all; that requires hundreds of new bidders (as you already know).

Anyway, the best strategy is what we consistently recommend: Bid the most you would pay.

Mark

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783513#Comment_783513

so you have to get on the forums and convince hundreds of others to lower their bids simultaneously. And all that does is (potentially) stop the title crossing at $2. (And maybe it still does and now you miss out.) It doesn't help it cross at $1 at all; that requires hundreds of new bidders (as you already know).

But it has worked in the past...hundreds of new bidders have bid because of this strategy. I have my doubts it will work on this particular resource which is why I have kept my bid at $2. But in other cases, this strategy has worked.

Anyway, the best strategy is what we consistently recommend: Bid the most you would pay.

FL has been consistent with this advice. And if I were a FL employee, it would be my advice as well. But I am not a FL employee. And I have seen the above strategy work on several occasions.

abondservant

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783553#Comment_783553

A bid for 10$, is also a bid for 9$, 8$, 7$, 6$, 5$, 4$, 3$, 2$. 1$ and if FL makes them available, it is also a bid for smaller increments.

IF its a book you would be wiling to pay 5$ for you bid that. IF it goes for 1$, score! If it goes for 6, then just wait, it will probably show up in a BP or bundle someday.

In order for the two dollar peak to drop, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people would have to drop their bid down from the highest ammounts to an amount lower than two dollars.

In the case of this resource, you're more likely to end up making it sell for a higher price point. If it takes a thousand bidders at 2$ (eg everyone whose bid 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and so on, the initial peak was 14 I think?) it takes 2,000 at 1$ - so if everyone thats bid two dollars changes their bid to one dollar (eg only those in at 2$, and not 3, 4, 5, etc) then you'll probably just succeed in making it sell for 3$ or whatever the next lowest price point that has crossed the line.

Sometimes unlikely things succeed. But not often. Consider the blind squirrel, or the broken clock. The blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, and the broken clock is still right twice a day.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783553#Comment_783553

…we consistently recommend: Bid the most you would pay.
FL has been consistent with this advice.

Not completely consistent. Phil Gons' A Bidding Strategy for Community Pricing suggests: "Never bid the lowest price. Don’t even bid the highest price that you think you’d be willing to pay. …always bid somewhere above the midpoint."

[Btw/apology: as it seems that my accepting Alabama24's invitation to ask CP questions has deviated the thread, perhaps we should generalize/rename it to something like: "How to get a Community Price down to $1" : ]

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783570#Comment_783570

No worries. The reason I created a new thread was to highlight the deal and encourage bidders. My title and initial post do that. If others have questions, we are helping to answer them while bumping the thread.... Which was part of the strategy. [:)]

Everett Headley

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783590#Comment_783590

Any idea if this will be ready for this Advent season?

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783619#Comment_783619

Any idea if this will be ready for this Advent season?

which year?

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783619#Comment_783619

Any idea if this will be ready for this Advent season?

I was about to ask this question also. [:)]

It is a high probability that this will go for $1, however, even a $2, it would be good to have it this year. It would be a short period of time to produce this, but then again, it is only 32 pages in length. I can't imagine it being a large amount of work.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783619#Comment_783619

Any idea if this will be ready for this Advent season?

I can't imagine that it will be ready for this year unless it jumps to the front of the line for production.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783655#Comment_783655

Any idea if this will be ready for this Advent season?

I can't imagine that it will be ready for this year unless it jumps to the front of the line for production.

guys, ever looked at your calendar? In my timezone it's (still) Nov 24 - one month until Christmas Eve. When CP closes on Friday it will be a mere couple of hours and then it's 1st Sunday of Advent. Even if it had been fully produced beforehand, it would not ship until the Advent season. It might ship before Christmas if Faithlife were to really rush it (for what reason?) - I expect it for next year's Advent season, but won't hold my breath.

David J. Wilson

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783656#Comment_783656

Already over 90% of the way to everyone getting this for $1.

It would not be the first Community Pricing title to be available to ship as soon as it closes..... [:)]

Dan Francis

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783659#Comment_783659

Being such a small work, and being so tied to the Advent/Christmas season it would be nice to see FL get this out soon as possible after closing, With such huge numbers interested it might be a good thing for them to do. I hope we can get a few more on board and get this to $1.

-Dan

Tom

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783714#Comment_783714

Being such a small work, and being so tied to the Advent/Christmas season it would be nice to see FL get this out soon as possible after closing

[Y] They should be working on it right now and have it ready to publish before closing!

Tom

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783659#Comment_783659

It would not be the first Community Pricing title to be available to ship as soon as it closes.....

We can pray this is the case! [Y]

Tom

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783656#Comment_783656

It might ship before Christmas if Faithlife were to really rush it (for what reason?) - I expect it for next year's Advent season, but won't hold my breath.

Reason? Good Will Perhaps?

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783765#Comment_783765

It has just crossed 100% at $1. [Y]

Thanks everyone for joining in. If you have not bid yet don't pass up this for $1.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783835#Comment_783835

Yes it has. [:D] 50 cents?, 50 cents? Let's see if we can get it down to 50 cents. [:)] Just kidding, I am happy that it has crossed at $1, but $2 was well within reach and I would gladly have paid that.

The Christmas tree is a subject that I want to dig into a little deeper, and this is a story that I haven't heard yet. Looking forward to this.

Wild Eagle

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783841#Comment_783841

Yes it has. 50 cents?, 50 cents? Let's see if we can get it down to 50 cents. Just kidding, I am happy that it has crossed at $1, but $2 was well within reach and I would gladly have paid that.

The Christmas tree is a subject that I want to dig into a little deeper, and this is a story that I haven't heard yet. Looking forward to this.

The next increment should be $0. Let see if we can do it [;)]

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783845#Comment_783845

Yes it has. 50 cents?, 50 cents? Let's see if we can get it down to 50 cents. Just kidding, I am happy that it has crossed at $1, but $2 was well within reach and I would gladly have paid that.

The Christmas tree is a subject that I want to dig into a little deeper, and this is a story that I haven't heard yet. Looking forward to this.

The next increment should be $0. Let see if we can do it

[Y] [:)]

Jan Krohn

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783846#Comment_783846

We only need an infinite number of users to bid $0 to achieve that. Piece of cake.

DAL

Wow it crossed the line to $1 buck! I didn't think it was going to

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783854#Comment_783854

Wow it crossed the line to $1 buck! I didn't think it was going to

Look at the rate of progression in the last few days.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783864#Comment_783864

I hope that this resource has now attracted more people to participate in Community Pricing. It really is an amazing way to get some good resources at a great price.

I wonder how many bidders actually participated in this one.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783866#Comment_783866

I hope that this resource has now attracted more people to participate in Community Pricing. It really is an amazing way to get some good resources at a great price.

I wonder how many bidders actually participated in this one.

Yes it is. The positive is that the resource can be had for a really good price. The negative is the time to release. I think that most of the new people participating expect the resource to be released as soon as the bidding ends. Sometimes it will take years (worst case) to be produced, and when it is, it has been forgotten that a bid was placed.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783873#Comment_783873

I hope that this resource has now attracted more people to participate in Community Pricing. It really is an amazing way to get some good resources at a great price.

I wonder how many bidders actually participated in this one.

Yes it is. The positive is that the resource can be had for a really good price. The negative is the time to release. I think that most of the new people participating expect the resource to be released as soon as the bidding ends. Sometimes it will take years (worst case) to be produced, and when it is, it has been forgotten that a bid was placed.

That's where the part of Faithlife comes in - going back to Tom's rationale earlier in this thread.

Michael Kinch

I placed my bid.

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783880#Comment_783880

That's where the part of Faithlife comes in - going back to Tom's rationale earlier in this thread.

Yes.

Floyd Johnson

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783854#Comment_783854

Wow it crossed the line to $1 buck! I didn't think it was going to

Do we dare ask them for lower increments - with 2-1/2 days to go?

Lew Worthington

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783866#Comment_783866

I wonder how many bidders actually participated in this one.

I was wondering that, myself. I've gotten tons of CP resources in the past (probably not as many as Bruce! [:)] ), but this one doesn't look that interesting to me.

Lew

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783918#Comment_783918

this one doesn't look that interesting to me.

Are think you would be among the minority regarding this. Doesn't it interest you at all?

https://community.logos.com/discussion/comment/783916#Comment_783916

Wow it crossed the line to $1 buck! I didn't think it was going to

Do we dare ask them for lower increments - with 2-1/2 days to go?

No. It would not be fair to FL. The credit card companies will already take a large chunk of the $1